Is Buffalo, NY a good rental market?
Live data for ZIP 14202 (Erie County), cross-checked against FHFA HPI, Census ACS, HUD Fair Market Rent, and FBI crime records. Updated on each visit. See Erie County housing data
Buffalo, NY is appreciation-driven for owning: at a 31.2x price-to-rent ratio, the math favors renting — monthly investor cash flow is typically thin or negative unless you buy below median or add units.
- The median home value in Buffalo (ZIP 14202), NY was $561,305 as of September 2026, down 0.3% year over year (ZIP market index, cross-checked against FHFA HPI).
- The typical market rent in Buffalo (ZIP 14202), NY was $1,500/mo as of September 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Small Area FMR, FY2027).
- Buffalo (ZIP 14202), NY has a price-to-rent ratio of 31.2 — a high reading that favors renting over buying at the median. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)
$291,253–$561,305
Sources disagree — showing the source range
$1,500/mo
Likely range $1,423–$1,500
31.2x
$72,839
2,954/100k/yr
Cash flow at standard assumptions
20% down, 6.75% interest, 30-year loan, 1 unit · estimates only · Insurance: state-level estimate (NY avg 0.5%/yr)
Monthly cash flow
$-2,946
Cash-on-cash return
-31.5%
Cap rate
-0.1%
Annual cash flow
$-35,353
Stress test
Resilience not scored — baseline already negativeA resilience score measures how many shocks a cash-flow-positive deal survives — with the baseline at −$2,946/mo there is nothing to protect, so there is no score (worst case −$3,407/mo). The rows below show how much deeper underwater each shock pushes the deal; the break-even math (rent, price, down payment, rate) lives in the cash-flow panel above.
Standard assumption · cash flow −$3,059/mo
Standard assumption · cash flow −$2,991/mo
Standard assumption · cash flow −$3,005/mo
Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets · cash flow −$3,407/mo
History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2003-05-01 → 2004-02-01, applied to rent · cash flow −$3,051/mo
Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance.
Report integrity
Every headline figure is independently re-derived from its raw inputs (cash-flow identity, cash-on-cash, cap rate, price-to-rent, and closed-form buy-vs-rent compounding) — the same checks the interactive analyzer runs.
Report integrity — internal re-derivation
16/16 verifiedHow the integrity pass works
Every headline figure is re-derived from the raw inputs (NOI − P&I = cash flow, CoC, cap rate) and the data feed's age is checked before the report is shown. This validates our own arithmetic — it is not independent source validation; the cross-dataset check is the data-confidence card above. An entry marked “by design” (e.g. price-to-rent) is the expected split between market rent and your rent estimate — two deliberately separate reads, not an arithmetic error.
Data quality
Cross-checked — sources diverge more than 15% on some metrics; the spread is shown, not averaged away
ZIP market index (ZIP, monthly): $561,305 · Census ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI (current): $291,253
Spread +$270,052 · 1.93× ratio
HUD Small Area FMR (ZIP 14202, FY2027): $1,500 · HUD county FMR (county, same year): $1,423
Spread +$77 · 1.05× ratio
Data quality score
72/100
- − Sources diverge more than 15% on some metrics — the spread is shown, not averaged away
- + 2 figures each cross-checked against a second, independent source
- − ZIP market index (ZIP, monthly) vs Census ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI (current) diverge more than 15% on home value (ZIP vs county) (1.93×) — cross-checked, not verified
- + The 1 cross-checked metric pair agreed within tolerance
- + Current home value observation (Sep 2026) — current for monthly cadence
- + Current rent observation (Nov 2026) — current for monthly cadence
A data-quality score, not statistical confidence — it measures how well independent public sources agree, how consistent the geography is, and how fresh the data is. Survey margins of error (e.g. ACS MOEs) are not part of it. Every point is earned or lost by a reason listed above, so the score itself is auditable.
How we check this — sources, cross-checks and thresholds
Cross-checks compare two separately produced figures — not our own math re-run — and each check names its own basis. Rent: a current ZIP market-rent-index figure is checked against HUD Small Area FMR where one exists, or against Census ACS gross rent inflated to current dollars with the same ACS rent trend the charts use — a raw ~2021 ACS figure is never compared to a current one. Home value: the check pairs our current FHFA-updated estimate against the raw ACS vintage, so its spread mostly reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021). These sources measure different things (administrative benchmarks vs. rents reported by existing tenants), so disagreement is information, not error. The report shows the spread rather than averaging it away.
FHFA HPI through 2026-04-01 · ACS 2024 5-year estimates · HUD FY2027 · pulled 2026-11-14T14:21Z
Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. Home value: the current ZIP market-index figure is paired against the county ACS × FHFA HPI estimate (current) — the spread measures ZIP-vs-county geography and methodology, not data age. Rent: the current ZIP market-rent-index figure is paired against HUD Small Area FMR when one exists for the ZIP, otherwise against the Census ACS county gross rent INFLATED to current dollars with the same ACS rent trend the rent chart uses (a raw ~2021 ACS figure is never compared to a current one). 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'.
Buffalo rental market — common questions
Is Buffalo, NY a good rental market?
Tough for cash flow. At 31.2x, Buffalo is appreciation-driven — most investors here bank on equity growth, not monthly rent spread.
What is the median home value in Buffalo?
The typical home value in Buffalo is about $561,305 (ZIP-level market index, cross-checked against the Census ACS county median updated by FHFA HPI), down 0.3% year-over-year, and up 8.2% over five years.
What is the median rent in Buffalo?
The typical rent in Buffalo is about $1,500/mo (ZIP-level, HUD Small Area FMR bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate.
Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Buffalo?
Over a 7-year horizon, renting is cheaper in Buffalo by about $242,139 — buying only pays off if prices appreciate faster than projected.
Is Buffalo affordable for homebuyers?
Buffalo's median home value is 7.7x the local median household income — Stretched (>5x — historically expensive vs local incomes).
More rental markets
Sources
- U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates
- FHFA House Price Index
- HUD Small Area Fair Market Rent
- HUD Fair Market Rent
- FBI Crime Data Explorer
Data vintages: ACS 2024 5-year estimates · HUD FY2027. For research only — verify before investing.
Areal provides area-level data for research purposes only — not an appraisal, not financial advice. Verify independently before acting.
Data from published market indexes, FHFA HPI, Census ACS, HUD Fair Market Rent, and FBI CDE — each card discloses its own vintage.