Is Fresno, CA a good rental market?
Live data for ZIP 93721 (Fresno County), cross-checked against FHFA HPI, Census ACS, HUD Fair Market Rent, and FBI crime records. Updated on each visit. See Fresno County housing data
Fresno, CA leans favorable for buying: a price-to-rent ratio of 9.8 favors owning at the median, and modeled investor cash flow is positive (10/mo at standard assumptions).
- The median home value in Fresno (ZIP 93721), CA was $197,712 as of September 2026, down 1.9% year over year (ZIP market index, cross-checked against FHFA HPI).
- The typical market rent in Fresno (ZIP 93721), CA was $1,685/mo as of September 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).
- Fresno (ZIP 93721), CA has a price-to-rent ratio of 9.8 — a reading that favors owning (owner-occupant math — not automatically strong investor cash flow). (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)
$197,712–$424,070
Sources disagree — showing the source range
$1,685/mo
Likely range $1,392–$1,685
9.8x
$74,201
2,453/100k/yr
Cash flow at standard assumptions
20% down, 6.75% interest, 30-year loan, 1 unit · estimates only · Insurance: state-level estimate (CA avg 0.65%/yr)
Monthly cash flow
$10
Cash-on-cash return
0.3%
Cap rate
6.3%
Annual cash flow
$114
Resilience score — does the deal survive the shocks?
0/100Survives 0 of 5 scenarios · worst-case cash flow −$424/mo
Standard assumption
Standard assumption
Standard assumption
Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets
History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2008-06-01 → 2009-06-01, applied to rent
Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance.
Report integrity
Every headline figure is independently re-derived from its raw inputs (cash-flow identity, cash-on-cash, cap rate, price-to-rent, and closed-form buy-vs-rent compounding) — the same checks the interactive analyzer runs.
Report integrity — internal re-derivation
16/16 verifiedHow the integrity pass works
Every headline figure is re-derived from the raw inputs (NOI − P&I = cash flow, CoC, cap rate) and the data feed's age is checked before the report is shown. This validates our own arithmetic — it is not independent source validation; the cross-dataset check is the data-confidence card above. An entry marked “by design” (e.g. price-to-rent) is the expected split between market rent and your rent estimate — two deliberately separate reads, not an arithmetic error.
Data quality
Divergent — sources disagree by more than 2× on some metrics
ZIP market index (ZIP, monthly): $197,712 · Census ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI (current): $424,070
Spread −$226,358 · 0.47× ratio
HUD FMR (county): $1,685 · Census ACS (county gross rent): $1,392
Spread +$293 · 1.21× ratio
Data quality score
53/100
- − Sources disagree by more than 2× on some metrics — the spread is shown, not averaged away
- + 2 figures each cross-checked against a second, independent source
- − HUD FMR (county) vs Census ACS (county gross rent) diverge more than 15% on HUD fair market rent (1.21×) — cross-checked, not verified
- − ZIP market index (ZIP, monthly) vs Census ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI (current) disagree on home value (ZIP vs county) (0.47× ratio)
- + Current home value observation (Sep 2026) — current for monthly cadence
- + Current rent observation (Nov 2026) — current for monthly cadence
A data-quality score, not statistical confidence — it measures how well independent public sources agree, how consistent the geography is, and how fresh the data is. Survey margins of error (e.g. ACS MOEs) are not part of it. Every point is earned or lost by a reason listed above, so the score itself is auditable.
How we check this — sources, cross-checks and thresholds
Cross-checks compare two separately produced figures — not our own math re-run — and each check names its own basis. Rent: a current ZIP market-rent-index figure is checked against HUD Small Area FMR where one exists, or against Census ACS gross rent inflated to current dollars with the same ACS rent trend the charts use — a raw ~2021 ACS figure is never compared to a current one. Home value: the check pairs our current FHFA-updated estimate against the raw ACS vintage, so its spread mostly reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021). These sources measure different things (administrative benchmarks vs. rents reported by existing tenants), so disagreement is information, not error. The report shows the spread rather than averaging it away.
FHFA HPI through 2026-04-01 · ACS 2024 5-year estimates · HUD FY2027 · pulled 2026-11-13T13:06Z
Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. Home value: the current ZIP market-index figure is paired against the county ACS × FHFA HPI estimate (current) — the spread measures ZIP-vs-county geography and methodology, not data age. Rent: the current ZIP market-rent-index figure is paired against HUD Small Area FMR when one exists for the ZIP, otherwise against the Census ACS county gross rent INFLATED to current dollars with the same ACS rent trend the rent chart uses (a raw ~2021 ACS figure is never compared to a current one). 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'.
Fresno rental market — common questions
Is Fresno, CA a good rental market?
For owning at the median, yes — Fresno's price-to-rent ratio of 9.8 is in the favorable range, and modeled investor cash flow is positive (about $10/mo at 20% down).
What is the median home value in Fresno?
The typical home value in Fresno is about $197,712 (ZIP-level market index, cross-checked against the Census ACS county median updated by FHFA HPI), down 1.9% year-over-year, and up 6.2% over five years.
What is the median rent in Fresno?
The typical rent in Fresno is about $1,685/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate.
Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Fresno?
Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Fresno — roughly $26,829 ahead of renting, with about $71,608 in equity built.
Is Fresno affordable for homebuyers?
Fresno's median home value is 2.7x the local median household income — Affordable (≤3x income — historical rule of thumb).
More rental markets
Sources
- U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates
- FHFA House Price Index
- HUD Fair Market Rent
- FBI Crime Data Explorer
Data vintages: ACS 2024 5-year estimates · HUD FY2027. For research only — verify before investing.
Areal provides area-level data for research purposes only — not an appraisal, not financial advice. Verify independently before acting.
Data from published market indexes, FHFA HPI, Census ACS, HUD Fair Market Rent, and FBI CDE — each card discloses its own vintage.