{"area":{"county":"Yuma County","state":"CO","stateName":"Colorado","slug":"yuma-co","metro":null},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":186648},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":195626},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":200668},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":212945},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":217372},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":211700},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":210175},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":209598},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":212419},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":216245},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":216518},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":217140},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":218665},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":219769},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":221252},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":221477},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":217590},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":218264},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":217834},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":216399},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":216447}],"latest":216447,"yoy":-0.5252998759134151,"fiveYr":15.965346534653465,"sinceStart":574.3527432470324,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1132}],"latest":1132,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":60545,"population":9979,"povertyRate":17.932943709627807,"medianHomeValue":211700,"medianGrossRent":942,"medianPropertyTax":1003},"hud":{"county":"Yuma County","year":"2027","perUnit":1132,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Colorado","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":46628,"ratePer100k":387.7549017797907},"propertyCrime":{"total":238108,"ratePer100k":1980.0880190654198},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":15.9,"ratioVerdict":"Borderline — at 15.9× the market leans renting (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":3.0071585834610337,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":216447,"monthlyRent":1132,"grossRent":1132,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"CO","down":43289.4,"loan":173157.6,"mortgagePI":1123.0968976632046,"monthlyTax":85.49656499999999,"taxRatePct":0.474,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.47% ($1,003 tax ÷ $211,700 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":133.47565,"insuranceRatePct":0.74,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (CO avg 0.74%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":true,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":56.6,"egi":1075.4,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":113.2,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":56.6,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":56.6,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":445.37221500000004,"noi":630.027785,"totalExpenses":1568.4691126632047,"cashFlow":-493.0691126632046,"annualCf":-5916.829351958455,"cocReturn":-13.668078910676643,"capRate":3.4929259449195413},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-577.9691126632046,"delta":-85,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-527.0291126632046,"delta":-34,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-526.4380251632045,"delta":-33,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-670.8474361760841,"delta":-178,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −5.1% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2007-10-01 → 2008-10-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-536.3580337179865,"delta":-43,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-670.8474361760841,"baselineCashFlow":-493.0691126632046,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":3.0071585834610337,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":104086.88626438114,"totalCashOutlay":175617.80937068042,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (CO avg 0.74%/yr)","homeValueAfter":266332.0445860316,"equityBuilt":109126.63470032375,"netCostOfBuying":109780.57467035667,"buyingCheaper":false,"savings":5693.688405975525},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":3.5749772896192913,"price":216447,"medianIncome":60545,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.474,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.47% ($1,003 tax ÷ $211,700 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":216447,"secondary":211700,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.02,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1132,"secondary":942,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.2,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.02,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":211700,"high":216447}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.2,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":942,"high":1132}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (228d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (14d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 3.0%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":228,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":14,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.02,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":211700,"high":216447}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.2,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":942,"high":1132}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Yuma County, CO is a moderate market — a 15.9x price-to-rent ratio is borderline, leaning renting; individual deals decide the outcome.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Yuma County, CO a good rental market?","a":"Mixed. Yuma County's 15.9x price-to-rent ratio is moderate; rentals can cash flow, but only on well-priced properties."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Yuma County?","a":"The typical home value in Yuma County is about $216,447 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA state HPI), down 0.5% year-over-year, and up 16.0% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Yuma County?","a":"The typical rent in Yuma County is about $1,132/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Yuma County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, renting is cheaper in Yuma County by about $5,694 — buying only pays off if prices appreciate faster than projected."},{"q":"Is Yuma County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Yuma County's median home value is 3.6x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Yuma County?","a":"Yuma County's effective property tax rate is about 0.47% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.47% ($1,003 tax ÷ $211,700 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $216,447 median home is roughly $85/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Yuma County, CO was $216,447 as of April 2026, down 0.5% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Yuma County, CO was $1,132/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Yuma County, CO has a price-to-rent ratio of 15.9 — a moderate reading where individual deals decide the outcome. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=yuma-co","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=yuma-co"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T21:43:16.442Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA state HPI (quarterly) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null,"acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":216447,"countyFmr":1132,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null},"links":{"stateDir":"CO","stateName":"Colorado","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}