{"area":{"county":"Yamhill County","state":"OR","stateName":"Oregon","slug":"yamhill-or","metro":"Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA MSA"},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":426325},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":443062},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":458582},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":478110},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":481525},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":471700},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":466369},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":456187},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":468651},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":473267},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":468217},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":472765},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":473905},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":477434},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":483593},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":486764},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":484643},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":484742},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":483821},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":482278},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":481190}],"latest":481190,"yoy":-0.7124832092901373,"fiveYr":12.869289861021521,"sinceStart":532.7783914575772,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1878}],"latest":1878,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":90063,"population":108734,"povertyRate":10.250717443574032,"medianHomeValue":471700,"medianGrossRent":1480,"medianPropertyTax":3425},"hud":{"county":"Yamhill County","year":"2027","perUnit":1878,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Oregon","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":25471,"ratePer100k":298.0050009523618},"propertyCrime":{"total":176334,"ratePer100k":2063.068345880953},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":21.4,"ratioVerdict":"Favors renting — price is high relative to rent","priceCagr":2.4510935025038316,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":481190,"monthlyRent":1878,"grossRent":1878,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"OR","down":96238,"loan":384952,"mortgagePI":2496.7913447012775,"monthlyTax":291.11995,"taxRatePct":0.726,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.73% ($3,425 tax ÷ $471,700 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":176.43633333333335,"insuranceRatePct":0.44,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (OR avg 0.44%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":93.9,"egi":1784.1,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":187.8,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":93.9,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":93.9,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":843.1562833333332,"noi":940.9437166666667,"totalExpenses":3339.9476280346107,"cashFlow":-1555.8476280346108,"annualCf":-18670.171536415328,"cocReturn":-19.39999951829353,"capRate":2.3465418233961635},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1696.6976280346107,"delta":-141,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1612.1876280346107,"delta":-56,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1599.9567113679443,"delta":-44,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-1951.072100959449,"delta":-395,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −11.7% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2008-04-01 → 2009-04-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-1721.0144862493553,"delta":-165,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-1951.072100959449,"baselineCashFlow":-1555.8476280346108,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":2.4510935025038316,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":172681.24770716237,"totalCashOutlay":389375.2742315689,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (OR avg 0.44%/yr)","homeValueAfter":570076.029858197,"equityBuilt":220587.8355986146,"netCostOfBuying":265025.4386329543,"buyingCheaper":false,"savings":92344.19092579195},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":5.342815584646303,"price":481190,"medianIncome":90063,"label":"Stretched (>5x — historically expensive vs local incomes)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.726,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.73% ($3,425 tax ÷ $471,700 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":481190,"secondary":471700,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.02,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1878,"secondary":1480,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.27,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.02,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":471700,"high":481190}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.27,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1480,"high":1878}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (229d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (15d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 2.5%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":229,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":15,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.02,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":471700,"high":481190}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.27,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1480,"high":1878}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Yamhill County, OR is appreciation-driven for owning: at a 21.4x price-to-rent ratio, the math favors renting — monthly investor cash flow is typically thin or negative unless you buy below median or add units.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Yamhill County, OR a good rental market?","a":"Tough for cash flow. At 21.4x, Yamhill County is appreciation-driven — most investors here bank on equity growth, not monthly rent spread."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Yamhill County?","a":"The typical home value in Yamhill County is about $481,190 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA metro HPI), down 0.7% year-over-year, and up 12.9% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Yamhill County?","a":"The typical rent in Yamhill County is about $1,878/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Yamhill County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, renting is cheaper in Yamhill County by about $92,344 — buying only pays off if prices appreciate faster than projected."},{"q":"Is Yamhill County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Yamhill County's median home value is 5.3x the local median household income — Stretched (>5x — historically expensive vs local incomes)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Yamhill County?","a":"Yamhill County's effective property tax rate is about 0.73% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.73% ($3,425 tax ÷ $471,700 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $481,190 median home is roughly $291/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Yamhill County, OR was $481,190 as of April 2026, down 0.7% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Yamhill County, OR was $1,878/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Yamhill County, OR has a price-to-rent ratio of 21.4 — a high reading that favors renting over buying at the median. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=yamhill-or","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=yamhill-or"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-15T12:22:39.969Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA metro HPI (quarterly, Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA MSA) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA MSA","acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":481190,"countyFmr":1878,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA MSA"},"links":{"stateDir":"OR","stateName":"Oregon","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}