{"area":{"county":"Woodbury County","state":"IA","stateName":"Iowa","slug":"woodbury-ia","metro":"Sioux City, IA-NE-SD MSA"},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":150082},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":160371},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":161325},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":166250},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":177098},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":183200},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":180070},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":182099},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":183130},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":190676},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":189785},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":190651},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":205463},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":200023},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":198038},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":206494},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":211972},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":209268},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":211482},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":209261},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":209573}],"latest":209573,"yoy":-1.131753250429302,"fiveYr":39.63899734811636,"sinceStart":388.03735270830424,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1194}],"latest":1194,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":73658,"population":106247,"povertyRate":13.951869434480358,"medianHomeValue":183200,"medianGrossRent":981,"medianPropertyTax":2656},"hud":{"county":"Woodbury County","year":"2027","perUnit":1194,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Iowa","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":13982,"ratePer100k":215.67255532027266},"propertyCrime":{"total":68730,"ratePer100k":1060.161259273519},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":14.6,"ratioVerdict":"Favorable for buying — price-to-rent favors owning (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":6.906796257318426,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":209573,"monthlyRent":1194,"grossRent":1194,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"IA","down":41914.600000000006,"loan":167658.4,"mortgagePI":1087.4291911367252,"monthlyTax":253.23404166666663,"taxRatePct":1.45,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 1.45% ($2,656 tax ÷ $183,200 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":101.29361666666665,"insuranceRatePct":0.58,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (IA avg 0.58%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":59.7,"egi":1134.3,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":119.4,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":59.7,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":59.7,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":593.3276583333334,"noi":540.9723416666666,"totalExpenses":1680.7568494700586,"cashFlow":-546.4568494700586,"annualCf":-6557.482193640703,"cocReturn":-15.64486406560173,"capRate":3.0975689139345235},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-636.0068494700585,"delta":-90,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-582.2768494700586,"delta":-36,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-571.7802536367253,"delta":-25,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-718.5892264194488,"delta":-172,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1988-07-01) (home values −7.3% over 3 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 1988-10-01 → 1989-01-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-611.7751102041382,"delta":-65,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-718.5892264194488,"baselineCashFlow":-546.4568494700586,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":6.906796257318426,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":109787.7581269179,"totalCashOutlay":188960.19479008074,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (IA avg 0.58%/yr)","homeValueAfter":334481.83340460056,"equityBuilt":182269.00825120293,"netCostOfBuying":48605.786538877815,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":61181.97158804009},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":2.8452170843628664,"price":209573,"medianIncome":73658,"label":"Affordable (≤3x income — historical rule of thumb)"},"countyTaxRatePct":1.45,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 1.45% ($2,656 tax ÷ $183,200 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":209573,"secondary":183200,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.14,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1194,"secondary":981,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.22,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.14,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":183200,"high":209573}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.22,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":981,"high":1194}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 6.9%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.14,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":183200,"high":209573}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.22,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":981,"high":1194}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Woodbury County, IA leans favorable for buying: a price-to-rent ratio of 14.6 favors owning at the median, and modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — not a claim of strong rental yield.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Woodbury County, IA a good rental market?","a":"For owning at the median, yes — Woodbury County's price-to-rent ratio of 14.6 is in the favorable range, but modeled investor cash flow is negative, so it is not a claim of strong rental yield."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Woodbury County?","a":"The typical home value in Woodbury County is about $209,573 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA metro HPI), down 1.1% year-over-year, and up 39.6% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Woodbury County?","a":"The typical rent in Woodbury County is about $1,194/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Woodbury County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Woodbury County — roughly $61,182 ahead of renting, with about $182,269 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Woodbury County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Woodbury County's median home value is 2.8x the local median household income — Affordable (≤3x income — historical rule of thumb)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Woodbury County?","a":"Woodbury County's effective property tax rate is about 1.45% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 1.45% ($2,656 tax ÷ $183,200 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $209,573 median home is roughly $253/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Woodbury County, IA was $209,573 as of April 2026, down 1.1% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Woodbury County, IA was $1,194/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Woodbury County, IA has a price-to-rent ratio of 14.6 — a reading that favors owning (owner-occupant math — not automatically strong investor cash flow). (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=woodbury-ia","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=woodbury-ia"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T11:34:58.391Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA metro HPI (quarterly, Sioux City, IA-NE-SD MSA) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Sioux City, IA-NE-SD MSA","acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":209573,"countyFmr":1194,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Sioux City, IA-NE-SD MSA"},"links":{"stateDir":"IA","stateName":"Iowa","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}