{"area":{"county":"Wise County","state":"VA","stateName":"Virginia","slug":"wise-va","metro":null},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":103981},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":107665},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":110832},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":115423},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":118137},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":118600},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":120119},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":121976},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":123962},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":126917},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":128761},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":129813},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":133086},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":134681},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":136313},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":138861},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":138471},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":139917},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":141420},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":142254},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":142760}],"latest":142760,"yoy":3.097399455481653,"fiveYr":37.29431338417595,"sinceStart":331.3512206913222,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":943}],"latest":943,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":52943,"population":35448,"povertyRate":17.228707306528317,"medianHomeValue":118600,"medianGrossRent":790,"medianPropertyTax":693},"hud":{"county":"Wise County","year":"2027","perUnit":943,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Virginia","period":"10-2024 to 09-2026","window":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":35217,"ratePer100k":198.2915295953078},"propertyCrime":{"total":230747,"ratePer100k":1299.2354709239428},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":12.6,"ratioVerdict":"Favorable for buying — price-to-rent favors owning (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":6.545295721997313,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":142760,"monthlyRent":943,"grossRent":943,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"VA","down":28552,"loan":114208,"mortgagePI":740.7509141286278,"monthlyTax":69.47653333333334,"taxRatePct":0.584,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.58% ($693 tax ÷ $118,600 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":66.62133333333334,"insuranceRatePct":0.56,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (VA avg 0.56%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":47.150000000000006,"egi":895.85,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":94.30000000000001,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":47.150000000000006,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":47.150000000000006,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":324.69786666666664,"noi":571.1521333333334,"totalExpenses":1065.4487807952944,"cashFlow":-169.59878079529437,"annualCf":-2035.1853695435325,"cocReturn":-7.12799583056715,"capRate":4.80094256094144},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-240.32378079529434,"delta":-71,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-197.88878079529445,"delta":-28,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-186.25411412862775,"delta":-17,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-286.8544298211466,"delta":-117,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −11.4% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2007-10-01 → 2008-10-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-250.2176243075245,"delta":-81,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-286.8544298211466,"baselineCashFlow":-169.59878079529437,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":6.545295721997313,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":86708.42203826098,"totalCashOutlay":119407.67753740835,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (VA avg 0.56%/yr)","homeValueAfter":222508.44221386508,"equityBuilt":118821.88469500988,"netCostOfBuying":29137.79284239847,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":57570.62919586251},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":2.696484898853484,"price":142760,"medianIncome":52943,"label":"Affordable (≤3x income — historical rule of thumb)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.584,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.58% ($693 tax ÷ $118,600 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":142760,"secondary":118600,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.2,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":943,"secondary":790,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.19,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.2,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":118600,"high":142760}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.19,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":790,"high":943}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 6.5%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.2,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":118600,"high":142760}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.19,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":790,"high":943}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Wise County, VA leans favorable for buying: a price-to-rent ratio of 12.6 favors owning at the median, and modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — not a claim of strong rental yield.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Wise County, VA a good rental market?","a":"For owning at the median, yes — Wise County's price-to-rent ratio of 12.6 is in the favorable range, but modeled investor cash flow is negative, so it is not a claim of strong rental yield."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Wise County?","a":"The typical home value in Wise County is about $142,760 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA state HPI), up 3.1% year-over-year, and up 37.3% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Wise County?","a":"The typical rent in Wise County is about $943/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Wise County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Wise County — roughly $57,571 ahead of renting, with about $118,822 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Wise County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Wise County's median home value is 2.7x the local median household income — Affordable (≤3x income — historical rule of thumb)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Wise County?","a":"Wise County's effective property tax rate is about 0.58% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.58% ($693 tax ÷ $118,600 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $142,760 median home is roughly $69/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Wise County, VA was $142,760 as of April 2026, up 3.1% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Wise County, VA was $943/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Wise County, VA has a price-to-rent ratio of 12.6 — a reading that favors owning (owner-occupant math — not automatically strong investor cash flow). (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=wise-va","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=wise-va"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-13T23:53:42.210Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA state HPI (quarterly) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null,"acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":142760,"countyFmr":943,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null},"links":{"stateDir":"VA","stateName":"Virginia","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}