{"area":{"county":"Winnebago County","state":"WI","stateName":"Wisconsin","slug":"winnebago-wi","metro":"Oshkosh-Neenah, WI MSA"},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":191168},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":198626},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":204645},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":210603},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":226598},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":225800},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":229248},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":239076},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":244007},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":250860},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":251649},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":258853},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":270874},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":271532},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":272173},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":281280},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":281430},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":291854},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":291599},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":292169},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":298057}],"latest":298057,"yoy":5.908041075933625,"fiveYr":55.91364663542016,"sinceStart":397.2008607603383,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1195}],"latest":1195,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":74925,"population":171769,"povertyRate":11.333276764934057,"medianHomeValue":225800,"medianGrossRent":965,"medianPropertyTax":3679},"hud":{"county":"Winnebago County","year":"2027","perUnit":1195,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Wisconsin","period":"06-2024 to 05-2026","window":{"from":"06-2024","to":"05-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":26633,"ratePer100k":222.95286940585694},"propertyCrime":{"total":112965,"ratePer100k":945.6640593411418},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"06-2024","to":"05-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":20.8,"ratioVerdict":"Favors renting — price is high relative to rent","priceCagr":9.290423149494442,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":298057,"monthlyRent":1195,"grossRent":1195,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"WI","down":59611.4,"loan":238445.6,"mortgagePI":1546.553622950661,"monthlyTax":404.6123774999999,"taxRatePct":1.629,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 1.63% ($3,679 tax ÷ $225,800 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":104.31994999999999,"insuranceRatePct":0.42,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (WI avg 0.42%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":59.75,"egi":1135.25,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":119.5,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":59.75,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":59.75,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":747.9323274999999,"noi":387.31767250000007,"totalExpenses":2294.485950450661,"cashFlow":-1159.235950450661,"annualCf":-13910.831405407931,"cocReturn":-23.335857579939294,"capRate":1.559370211067011},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1248.8609504506608,"delta":-90,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1195.085950450661,"delta":-36,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1185.315937950661,"delta":-26,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-1404.0444891288516,"delta":-245,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1985-07-01) (home values −4.1% over 9 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2010-07-01 → 2011-04-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-1196.2698864424958,"delta":-37,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-1404.0444891288516,"baselineCashFlow":-1159.235950450661,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":9.290423149494442,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":109879.70767308789,"totalCashOutlay":270588.8970966795,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (WI avg 0.42%/yr)","homeValueAfter":555103.6437813599,"equityBuilt":338624.9083204642,"netCostOfBuying":-8424.611223784683,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":118304.31889687257},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":3.9780714047380714,"price":298057,"medianIncome":74925,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":1.629,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 1.63% ($3,679 tax ÷ $225,800 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":298057,"secondary":225800,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.32,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1195,"secondary":965,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.24,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.32,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":225800,"high":298057}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.24,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":965,"high":1195}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 9.3%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.32,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":225800,"high":298057}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.24,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":965,"high":1195}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Winnebago County, WI is appreciation-driven for owning: at a 20.8x price-to-rent ratio, the math favors renting — monthly investor cash flow is typically thin or negative unless you buy below median or add units.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Winnebago County, WI a good rental market?","a":"Tough for cash flow. At 20.8x, Winnebago County is appreciation-driven — most investors here bank on equity growth, not monthly rent spread."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Winnebago County?","a":"The typical home value in Winnebago County is about $298,057 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA metro HPI), up 5.9% year-over-year, and up 55.9% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Winnebago County?","a":"The typical rent in Winnebago County is about $1,195/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Winnebago County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Winnebago County — roughly $118,304 ahead of renting, with about $338,625 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Winnebago County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Winnebago County's median home value is 4.0x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Winnebago County?","a":"Winnebago County's effective property tax rate is about 1.63% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 1.63% ($3,679 tax ÷ $225,800 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $298,057 median home is roughly $405/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Winnebago County, WI was $298,057 as of April 2026, up 5.9% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Winnebago County, WI was $1,195/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Winnebago County, WI has a price-to-rent ratio of 20.8 — a high reading that favors renting over buying at the median. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=winnebago-wi","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=winnebago-wi"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T08:38:18.047Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA metro HPI (quarterly, Oshkosh-Neenah, WI MSA) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Oshkosh-Neenah, WI MSA","acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":298057,"countyFmr":1195,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Oshkosh-Neenah, WI MSA"},"links":{"stateDir":"WI","stateName":"Wisconsin","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}