{"area":{"county":"Wilkes County","state":"NC","stateName":"North Carolina","slug":"wilkes-nc","metro":null},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":136470},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":144837},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":151303},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":160003},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":168453},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":168800},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":170780},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":172637},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":175990},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":180841},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":181034},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":183791},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":186086},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":187645},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":190788},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":191802},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":191938},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":191705},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":192732},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":193149},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":192732}],"latest":192732,"yoy":0.4136752492992529,"fiveYr":41.22664321828973,"sinceStart":339.05506071029913,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1012}],"latest":1012,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":51721,"population":65935,"povertyRate":16.728066373599155,"medianHomeValue":168800,"medianGrossRent":723,"medianPropertyTax":1002},"hud":{"county":"Wilkes County","year":"2027","perUnit":1012,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"North Carolina","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":69325,"ratePer100k":309.54276704487813},"propertyCrime":{"total":366865,"ratePer100k":1638.0873744236455},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":15.9,"ratioVerdict":"Borderline — at 15.9× the market leans renting (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":7.148829803288814,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":192732,"monthlyRent":1012,"grossRent":1012,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"NC","down":38546.4,"loan":154185.6,"mortgagePI":1000.0448667822828,"monthlyTax":95.40234,"taxRatePct":0.594,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.59% ($1,002 tax ÷ $168,800 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":106.00259999999999,"insuranceRatePct":0.66,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (NC avg 0.66%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":true,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":50.6,"egi":961.4,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":101.2,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":50.6,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":50.6,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":403.80494000000004,"noi":557.5950599999999,"totalExpenses":1403.849806782283,"cashFlow":-442.44980678228296,"annualCf":-5309.397681387396,"cocReturn":-13.774042923301257,"capRate":3.4717331423946196},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-518.3498067822827,"delta":-76,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-472.80980678228286,"delta":-30,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-468.9504567822829,"delta":-27,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-600.7498610555426,"delta":-158,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −6.2% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2010-01-01 → 2011-01-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-489.682320866354,"delta":-47,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-600.7498610555426,"baselineCashFlow":-442.44980678228296,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":7.148829803288814,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":93052.94072398738,"totalCashOutlay":163432.6246859596,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (NC avg 0.66%/yr)","homeValueAfter":312511.3930326882,"equityBuilt":172530.18258351454,"netCostOfBuying":29448.84210244505,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":63604.09862154233},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":3.7263780669360607,"price":192732,"medianIncome":51721,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.594,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.59% ($1,002 tax ÷ $168,800 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":192732,"secondary":168800,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.14,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1012,"secondary":723,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.4,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":true}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.14,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":168800,"high":192732}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.4,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":723,"high":1012}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (229d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (15d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 7.1%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":229,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":15,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.14,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":168800,"high":192732}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.4,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":723,"high":1012}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Wilkes County, NC is a moderate market — a 15.9x price-to-rent ratio is borderline, leaning renting; individual deals decide the outcome.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Wilkes County, NC a good rental market?","a":"Mixed. Wilkes County's 15.9x price-to-rent ratio is moderate; rentals can cash flow, but only on well-priced properties."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Wilkes County?","a":"The typical home value in Wilkes County is about $192,732 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA state HPI), up 0.4% year-over-year, and up 41.2% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Wilkes County?","a":"The typical rent in Wilkes County is about $1,012/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Wilkes County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Wilkes County — roughly $63,604 ahead of renting, with about $172,530 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Wilkes County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Wilkes County's median home value is 3.7x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Wilkes County?","a":"Wilkes County's effective property tax rate is about 0.59% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.59% ($1,002 tax ÷ $168,800 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $192,732 median home is roughly $95/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Wilkes County, NC was $192,732 as of April 2026, up 0.4% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Wilkes County, NC was $1,012/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Wilkes County, NC has a price-to-rent ratio of 15.9 — a moderate reading where individual deals decide the outcome. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=wilkes-nc","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=wilkes-nc"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-15T12:24:40.516Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA state HPI (quarterly) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null,"acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":192732,"countyFmr":1012,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null},"links":{"stateDir":"NC","stateName":"North Carolina","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}