{"area":{"county":"Wichita County","state":"TX","stateName":"Texas","slug":"wichita-tx","metro":"Wichita Falls, TX MSA"},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":127878},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":133568},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":136620},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":144417},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":151017},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":153700},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":157864},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":151196},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":154773},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":157266},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":160351},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":163341},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":167550},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":164487},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":169539},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":174648},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":170311},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":170881},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":172994},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":176867},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":171663}],"latest":171663,"yoy":0.7938418540199986,"fiveYr":34.23966593159105,"sinceStart":243.93821001382457,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1145}],"latest":1145,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":63524,"population":129996,"povertyRate":16.491183559558547,"medianHomeValue":153700,"medianGrossRent":1006,"medianPropertyTax":2522},"hud":{"county":"Wichita County","year":"2027","perUnit":1145,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Texas","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":200412,"ratePer100k":316.00935243374596},"propertyCrime":{"total":1038472,"ratePer100k":1637.4611512313488},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":12.5,"ratioVerdict":"Favorable for buying — price-to-rent favors owning (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":6.066850720615902,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":171663,"monthlyRent":1145,"grossRent":1145,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"TX","down":34332.6,"loan":137330.4,"mortgagePI":890.7223604095167,"monthlyTax":234.7491525,"taxRatePct":1.641,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 1.64% ($2,522 tax ÷ $153,700 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":121.59462500000001,"insuranceRatePct":0.85,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (TX avg 0.85%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":true,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":57.25,"egi":1087.75,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":114.5,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":57.25,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":57.25,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":585.3437775,"noi":502.4062225,"totalExpenses":1476.0661379095168,"cashFlow":-388.31613790951667,"annualCf":-4659.7936549142,"cocReturn":-13.57250442702912,"capRate":3.5120408416490454},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-474.19113790951667,"delta":-86,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-422.6661379095166,"delta":-34,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-418.7147941595167,"delta":-30,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-529.311209909551,"delta":-141,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1986-07-01) (home values −7.0% over 6 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 1987-10-01 → 1988-04-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-448.1756217923154,"delta":-60,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-529.311209909551,"baselineCashFlow":-388.31613790951667,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"verified","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":6.066850720615902,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":105282.23036459048,"totalCashOutlay":158966.17132868795,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (TX avg 0.85%/yr)","homeValueAfter":259259.34380358644,"equityBuilt":134580.5435559032,"netCostOfBuying":58718.22777278477,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":46564.00259180571},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":2.702332976512814,"price":171663,"medianIncome":63524,"label":"Affordable (≤3x income — historical rule of thumb)"},"countyTaxRatePct":1.641,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 1.64% ($2,522 tax ÷ $153,700 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"verified","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":171663,"secondary":153700,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.12,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1145,"secondary":1006,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.14,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.12,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":153700,"high":171663}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.14,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1006,"high":1145}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (228d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (14d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 6.1%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":228,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":14,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.12,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":153700,"high":171663}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.14,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1006,"high":1145}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Wichita County, TX leans favorable for buying: a price-to-rent ratio of 12.5 favors owning at the median, and modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — not a claim of strong rental yield.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Wichita County, TX a good rental market?","a":"For owning at the median, yes — Wichita County's price-to-rent ratio of 12.5 is in the favorable range, but modeled investor cash flow is negative, so it is not a claim of strong rental yield."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Wichita County?","a":"The typical home value in Wichita County is about $171,663 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA metro HPI), up 0.8% year-over-year, and up 34.2% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Wichita County?","a":"The typical rent in Wichita County is about $1,145/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Wichita County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Wichita County — roughly $46,564 ahead of renting, with about $134,581 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Wichita County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Wichita County's median home value is 2.7x the local median household income — Affordable (≤3x income — historical rule of thumb)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Wichita County?","a":"Wichita County's effective property tax rate is about 1.64% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 1.64% ($2,522 tax ÷ $153,700 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $171,663 median home is roughly $235/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Wichita County, TX was $171,663 as of April 2026, up 0.8% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Wichita County, TX was $1,145/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Wichita County, TX has a price-to-rent ratio of 12.5 — a reading that favors owning (owner-occupant math — not automatically strong investor cash flow). (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=wichita-tx","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=wichita-tx"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-15T09:07:08.928Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA metro HPI (quarterly, Wichita Falls, TX MSA) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Wichita Falls, TX MSA","acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":171663,"countyFmr":1145,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Wichita Falls, TX MSA"},"links":{"stateDir":"TX","stateName":"Texas","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}