{"area":{"county":"Wibaux County","state":"MT","stateName":"Montana","slug":"wibaux-mt","metro":null},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":80419},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":87072},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":90530},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":95417},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":99246},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":98600},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":99907},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":100878},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":102741},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":102794},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":103923},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":105634},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":107205},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":109321},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":111929},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":111323},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":109993},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":111067},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":110450},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":111080},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":113052}],"latest":113052,"yoy":2.7810860691134893,"fiveYr":40.57871895944988,"sinceStart":642.0544798162127,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1552}],"latest":1552,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":67462,"population":1193,"povertyRate":15.807560137457044,"medianHomeValue":98600,"medianGrossRent":963,"medianPropertyTax":598},"hud":{"county":"Wibaux County","year":"2027","perUnit":1552,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Montana","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":8560,"ratePer100k":373.899050750681},"propertyCrime":{"total":29911,"ratePer100k":1306.5063676406096},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":6.1,"ratioVerdict":"Favorable for buying — price-to-rent favors owning (modeled investor cash flow is positive at standard assumptions)","priceCagr":7.050319214415124,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":113052,"monthlyRent":1552,"grossRent":1552,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"MT","down":22610.4,"loan":90441.6,"mortgagePI":586.6024961058394,"monthlyTax":57.09126,"taxRatePct":0.606,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.61% ($598 tax ÷ $98,600 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":58.410199999999996,"insuranceRatePct":0.62,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (MT avg 0.62%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":77.60000000000001,"egi":1474.4,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":155.20000000000002,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":77.60000000000001,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":77.60000000000001,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":425.90146000000004,"noi":1048.49854,"totalExpenses":1012.5039561058394,"cashFlow":461.8960438941607,"annualCf":5542.752526729928,"cocReturn":24.514172799817462,"capRate":11.129376287018363},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":345.4960438941606,"delta":-116,"survives":true},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":415.3360438941605,"delta":-47,"survives":true},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":447.29349389416063,"delta":-15,"survives":true},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":369.0410030306789,"delta":-93,"survives":true},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −7.6% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2010-01-01 → 2011-01-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":373.7644672895136,"delta":-88,"survives":true}],"survived":5,"total":5,"score":100,"worstCashFlow":345.4960438941606,"baselineCashFlow":461.8960438941607,"framing":"scored","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":7.050319214415124,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":142705.6956557593,"totalCashOutlay":95205.67647430433,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (MT avg 0.62%/yr)","homeValueAfter":182135.25430377354,"equityBuilt":100025.61084186795,"netCostOfBuying":17790.465632436375,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":124915.23002332293},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":1.675787850938306,"price":113052,"medianIncome":67462,"label":"Affordable (≤3x income — historical rule of thumb)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.606,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.61% ($598 tax ÷ $98,600 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":113052,"secondary":98600,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.15,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1552,"secondary":963,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.61,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":true}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.15,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":98600,"high":113052}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.61,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":963,"high":1552}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 7.1%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.15,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":98600,"high":113052}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.61,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":963,"high":1552}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Wibaux County, MT leans favorable for buying: a price-to-rent ratio of 6.1 favors owning at the median, and modeled investor cash flow is positive (462/mo at standard assumptions).","faqs":[{"q":"Is Wibaux County, MT a good rental market?","a":"For owning at the median, yes — Wibaux County's price-to-rent ratio of 6.1 is in the favorable range, and modeled investor cash flow is positive (about $462/mo at 20% down)."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Wibaux County?","a":"The typical home value in Wibaux County is about $113,052 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA state HPI), up 2.8% year-over-year, and up 40.6% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Wibaux County?","a":"The typical rent in Wibaux County is about $1,552/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Wibaux County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Wibaux County — roughly $124,915 ahead of renting, with about $100,026 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Wibaux County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Wibaux County's median home value is 1.7x the local median household income — Affordable (≤3x income — historical rule of thumb)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Wibaux County?","a":"Wibaux County's effective property tax rate is about 0.61% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.61% ($598 tax ÷ $98,600 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $113,052 median home is roughly $57/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Wibaux County, MT was $113,052 as of April 2026, up 2.8% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Wibaux County, MT was $1,552/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Wibaux County, MT has a price-to-rent ratio of 6.1 — a reading that favors owning (owner-occupant math — not automatically strong investor cash flow). (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=wibaux-mt","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=wibaux-mt"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T10:24:58.045Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA state HPI (quarterly) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null,"acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":113052,"countyFmr":1552,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null},"links":{"stateDir":"MT","stateName":"Montana","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}