{"area":{"county":"Weston County","state":"WY","stateName":"Wyoming","slug":"weston-wy","metro":null},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":188666},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":197580},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":206457},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":211433},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":219923},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":221700},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":221882},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":224507},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":226804},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":230290},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":227929},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":236615},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":237782},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":242111},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":245059},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":247493},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":249006},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":246509},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":253075},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":252465},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":257058}],"latest":257058,"yoy":3.2336570203127635,"fiveYr":36.25030477139495,"sinceStart":464.09479921000656,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1101}],"latest":1101,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":89509,"population":6826,"povertyRate":9.014972419227739,"medianHomeValue":221700,"medianGrossRent":698,"medianPropertyTax":1510},"hud":{"county":"Weston County","year":"2027","perUnit":1101,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Wyoming","period":"10-2024 to 09-2026","window":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":1978,"ratePer100k":167.98215890195038},"propertyCrime":{"total":10906,"ratePer100k":926.194855907316},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":19.5,"ratioVerdict":"Borderline — at 19.5× the market leans renting (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":6.382740759654282,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":257058,"monthlyRent":1101,"grossRent":1101,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"WY","down":51411.600000000006,"loan":205646.4,"mortgagePI":1333.818636061059,"monthlyTax":145.880415,"taxRatePct":0.681,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.68% ($1,510 tax ÷ $221,700 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":132.8133,"insuranceRatePct":0.62,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (WY avg 0.62%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":55.050000000000004,"egi":1045.95,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":110.10000000000001,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":55.050000000000004,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":55.050000000000004,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":498.89371500000004,"noi":547.056285,"totalExpenses":1832.712351061059,"cashFlow":-786.7623510610589,"annualCf":-9441.148212732707,"cocReturn":-18.363848261350952,"capRate":2.553772074784679},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-869.3373510610589,"delta":-83,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-819.792351061059,"delta":-33,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-819.9656760610588,"delta":-33,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-997.8964406329807,"delta":-211,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −6.2% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2008-01-01 → 2009-01-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-838.1942773029486,"delta":-51,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-997.8964406329807,"baselineCashFlow":-786.7623510610589,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":6.382740759654282,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":101236.45033311275,"totalCashOutlay":210824.4334241172,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (WY avg 0.62%/yr)","homeValueAfter":396396.0780003345,"equityBuilt":209694.90748561124,"netCostOfBuying":52541.12593850595,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":48695.324394606796},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":2.8718676334223376,"price":257058,"medianIncome":89509,"label":"Affordable (≤3x income — historical rule of thumb)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.681,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.68% ($1,510 tax ÷ $221,700 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":257058,"secondary":221700,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.16,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1101,"secondary":698,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.58,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":true}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.16,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":221700,"high":257058}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.58,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":698,"high":1101}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (228d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (14d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 6.4%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":228,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":14,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.16,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":221700,"high":257058}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.58,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":698,"high":1101}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Weston County, WY is a moderate market — a 19.5x price-to-rent ratio is borderline, leaning renting; individual deals decide the outcome.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Weston County, WY a good rental market?","a":"Mixed. Weston County's 19.5x price-to-rent ratio is moderate; rentals can cash flow, but only on well-priced properties."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Weston County?","a":"The typical home value in Weston County is about $257,058 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA state HPI), up 3.2% year-over-year, and up 36.3% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Weston County?","a":"The typical rent in Weston County is about $1,101/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Weston County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Weston County — roughly $48,695 ahead of renting, with about $209,695 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Weston County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Weston County's median home value is 2.9x the local median household income — Affordable (≤3x income — historical rule of thumb)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Weston County?","a":"Weston County's effective property tax rate is about 0.68% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.68% ($1,510 tax ÷ $221,700 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $257,058 median home is roughly $146/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Weston County, WY was $257,058 as of April 2026, up 3.2% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Weston County, WY was $1,101/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Weston County, WY has a price-to-rent ratio of 19.5 — a moderate reading where individual deals decide the outcome. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=weston-wy","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=weston-wy"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-15T06:06:42.056Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA state HPI (quarterly) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null,"acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":257058,"countyFmr":1101,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null},"links":{"stateDir":"WY","stateName":"Wyoming","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}