{"area":{"county":"Western Connecticut Planning Region","state":"CT","stateName":"Connecticut","slug":"western-connecticut-planning-region-ct","metro":"Bridgeport-Stamford-Danbury, CT MSA"},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":570960},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":594834},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":607840},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":633323},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":656485},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":652900},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":659954},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":672179},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":700603},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":716733},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":727119},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":741044},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":752947},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":762276},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":786816},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":785139},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":797363},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":815011},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":827212},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":844698},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":850328}],"latest":850328,"yoy":6.642520407894523,"fiveYr":48.929522208210734,"sinceStart":270.06018774398234,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":2399}],"latest":2399,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":128188,"population":627071,"povertyRate":7.456889254359446,"medianHomeValue":652900,"medianGrossRent":2110,"medianPropertyTax":9295},"hud":{"county":"Western Connecticut Planning Region","year":"2027","perUnit":2399,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Connecticut","period":"10-2024 to 09-2026","window":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":7652,"ratePer100k":103.72791511770652},"propertyCrime":{"total":82299,"ratePer100k":1115.6173139404245},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":29.5,"ratioVerdict":"Favors renting — price is high relative to rent","priceCagr":8.293127387903265,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":850328,"monthlyRent":2399,"grossRent":2399,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"CT","down":170065.6,"loan":680262.4,"mortgagePI":4412.168978069261,"monthlyTax":1009.0558933333333,"taxRatePct":1.424,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 1.42% ($9,295 tax ÷ $652,900 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":368.4754666666667,"insuranceRatePct":0.52,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (CT avg 0.52%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":119.95,"egi":2279.05,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":239.9,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":119.95,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":119.95,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":1857.3313600000001,"noi":421.71864000000005,"totalExpenses":6269.5003380692615,"cashFlow":-3990.4503380692613,"annualCf":-47885.40405683113,"cocReturn":-28.157019442398184,"capRate":0.5951378385752322},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-4170.3753380692615,"delta":-180,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-4062.4203380692616,"delta":-72,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-4082.569204735928,"delta":-92,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-4688.865591115317,"delta":-698,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −13.5% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2008-01-01 → 2009-01-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-4233.964421030496,"delta":-244,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-4688.865591115317,"baselineCashFlow":-3990.4503380692613,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":8.293127387903265,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":220586.96126170526,"totalCashOutlay":794092.1652681954,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (CT avg 0.52%/yr)","homeValueAfter":1485226.7100513256,"equityBuilt":867633.6652075804,"netCostOfBuying":96524.10006061499,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":124062.86120109027},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":6.633444628202328,"price":850328,"medianIncome":128188,"label":"Stretched (>5x — historically expensive vs local incomes)"},"countyTaxRatePct":1.424,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 1.42% ($9,295 tax ÷ $652,900 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":850328,"secondary":652900,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.3,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":2399,"secondary":2110,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.14,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.3,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":652900,"high":850328}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.14,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":2110,"high":2399}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 8.3%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.3,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":652900,"high":850328}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.14,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":2110,"high":2399}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Western Connecticut Planning Region, CT is appreciation-driven for owning: at a 29.5x price-to-rent ratio, the math favors renting — monthly investor cash flow is typically thin or negative unless you buy below median or add units.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Western Connecticut Planning Region, CT a good rental market?","a":"Tough for cash flow. At 29.5x, Western Connecticut Planning Region is appreciation-driven — most investors here bank on equity growth, not monthly rent spread."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Western Connecticut Planning Region?","a":"The typical home value in Western Connecticut Planning Region is about $850,328 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA metro HPI), up 6.6% year-over-year, and up 48.9% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Western Connecticut Planning Region?","a":"The typical rent in Western Connecticut Planning Region is about $2,399/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Western Connecticut Planning Region?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Western Connecticut Planning Region — roughly $124,063 ahead of renting, with about $867,634 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Western Connecticut Planning Region affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Western Connecticut Planning Region's median home value is 6.6x the local median household income — Stretched (>5x — historically expensive vs local incomes)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Western Connecticut Planning Region?","a":"Western Connecticut Planning Region's effective property tax rate is about 1.42% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 1.42% ($9,295 tax ÷ $652,900 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $850,328 median home is roughly $1,009/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Western Connecticut Planning Region, CT was $850,328 as of April 2026, up 6.6% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Western Connecticut Planning Region, CT was $2,399/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Western Connecticut Planning Region, CT has a price-to-rent ratio of 29.5 — a high reading that favors renting over buying at the median. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=western-connecticut-planning-region-ct","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=western-connecticut-planning-region-ct"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T11:46:41.709Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA metro HPI (quarterly, Bridgeport-Stamford-Danbury, CT MSA) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Bridgeport-Stamford-Danbury, CT MSA","acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":["2019","2020","2021","2019","2020","2021"],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":850328,"countyFmr":2399,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Bridgeport-Stamford-Danbury, CT MSA"},"links":{"stateDir":"CT","stateName":"Connecticut","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}