{"area":{"county":"Weld County","state":"CO","stateName":"Colorado","slug":"weld-co","metro":"Greeley, CO MSA"},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":387995},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":409963},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":424861},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":433951},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":464010},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":471700},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":457330},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":463471},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":464676},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":471264},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":461829},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":470656},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":472492},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":483981},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":481995},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":484899},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":483694},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":486104},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":488790},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":487172},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":485909}],"latest":485909,"yoy":0.45793414844922614,"fiveYr":25.235892215105864,"sinceStart":555.455734962837,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1647}],"latest":1647,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":97097,"population":350396,"povertyRate":9.57701585863952,"medianHomeValue":471700,"medianGrossRent":1539,"medianPropertyTax":2440},"hud":{"county":"Weld County","year":"2027","perUnit":1647,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Colorado","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":46628,"ratePer100k":387.7549017797907},"propertyCrime":{"total":238108,"ratePer100k":1980.0880190654198},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":24.6,"ratioVerdict":"Favors renting — price is high relative to rent","priceCagr":4.60403536614773,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":485909,"monthlyRent":1647,"grossRent":1647,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"CO","down":97181.8,"loan":388727.2,"mortgagePI":2521.277220042921,"monthlyTax":209.34579416666668,"taxRatePct":0.517,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.52% ($2,440 tax ÷ $471,700 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":299.64388333333335,"insuranceRatePct":0.74,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (CO avg 0.74%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":true,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":82.35000000000001,"egi":1564.65,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":164.70000000000002,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":82.35000000000001,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":82.35000000000001,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":838.3896775000001,"noi":726.2603225,"totalExpenses":3359.666897542921,"cashFlow":-1795.0168975429208,"annualCf":-21540.20277051505,"cocReturn":-22.164852647836376,"capRate":1.7935711974875954},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1918.5418975429209,"delta":-124,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1844.4268975429209,"delta":-49,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1869.927868376254,"delta":-75,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-2194.1173119622463,"delta":-399,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1983-04-01) (home values −10.3% over 3 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 1985-01-01 → 1985-04-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-1922.5381294349922,"delta":-128,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-2194.1173119622463,"baselineCashFlow":-1795.0168975429208,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"verified","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":4.60403536614773,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":151440.90254190436,"totalCashOutlay":398483.32576441346,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (CO avg 0.74%/yr)","homeValueAfter":665877.001494608,"equityBuilt":312961.3985425947,"netCostOfBuying":182703.72722181876,"buyingCheaper":false,"savings":31262.824679914396},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":5.004366767253365,"price":485909,"medianIncome":97097,"label":"Stretched (>5x — historically expensive vs local incomes)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.517,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.52% ($2,440 tax ÷ $471,700 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"verified","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":485909,"secondary":471700,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.03,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1647,"secondary":1539,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.07,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.03,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":471700,"high":485909}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.07,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1539,"high":1647}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (228d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (14d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 4.6%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":228,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":14,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.03,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":471700,"high":485909}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.07,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1539,"high":1647}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Weld County, CO is appreciation-driven for owning: at a 24.6x price-to-rent ratio, the math favors renting — monthly investor cash flow is typically thin or negative unless you buy below median or add units.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Weld County, CO a good rental market?","a":"Tough for cash flow. At 24.6x, Weld County is appreciation-driven — most investors here bank on equity growth, not monthly rent spread."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Weld County?","a":"The typical home value in Weld County is about $485,909 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA metro HPI), up 0.5% year-over-year, and up 25.2% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Weld County?","a":"The typical rent in Weld County is about $1,647/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Weld County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, renting is cheaper in Weld County by about $31,263 — buying only pays off if prices appreciate faster than projected."},{"q":"Is Weld County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Weld County's median home value is 5.0x the local median household income — Stretched (>5x — historically expensive vs local incomes)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Weld County?","a":"Weld County's effective property tax rate is about 0.52% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.52% ($2,440 tax ÷ $471,700 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $485,909 median home is roughly $209/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Weld County, CO was $485,909 as of April 2026, up 0.5% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Weld County, CO was $1,647/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Weld County, CO has a price-to-rent ratio of 24.6 — a high reading that favors renting over buying at the median. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=weld-co","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=weld-co"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T16:21:16.659Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA metro HPI (quarterly, Greeley, CO MSA) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Greeley, CO MSA","acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":485909,"countyFmr":1647,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Greeley, CO MSA"},"links":{"stateDir":"CO","stateName":"Colorado","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}