{"area":{"county":"Webb County","state":"TX","stateName":"Texas","slug":"webb-tx","metro":"Laredo, TX MSA"},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":163410},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":169898},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":175588},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":181180},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":187681},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":189900},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":189760},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":193945},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":193749},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":187555},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":197291},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":195562},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":204275},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":208817},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":211008},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":198256},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":203183},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":208131},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":205766},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":214325},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":213471}],"latest":213471,"yoy":5.063415738521431,"fiveYr":30.635212043326604,"sinceStart":205.01957534364016,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1157}],"latest":1157,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":63058,"population":269294,"povertyRate":21.307097733742967,"medianHomeValue":189900,"medianGrossRent":1027,"medianPropertyTax":3421},"hud":{"county":"Webb County","year":"2027","perUnit":1157,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Texas","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":200412,"ratePer100k":316.00935243374596},"propertyCrime":{"total":1038472,"ratePer100k":1637.4611512313488},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":15.4,"ratioVerdict":"Borderline — at 15.4× the market leans renting (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":5.490956196286501,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":213471,"monthlyRent":1157,"grossRent":1157,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"TX","down":42694.200000000004,"loan":170776.8,"mortgagePI":1107.6550741801084,"monthlyTax":320.38439249999993,"taxRatePct":1.801,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 1.80% ($3,421 tax ÷ $189,900 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":151.208625,"insuranceRatePct":0.85,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (TX avg 0.85%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":true,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":57.85,"egi":1099.15,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":115.7,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":57.85,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":57.85,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":702.9930175000001,"noi":396.1569825,"totalExpenses":1810.6480916801083,"cashFlow":-711.4980916801084,"annualCf":-8537.9771001613,"cocReturn":-19.99797888275527,"capRate":2.2269459505038154},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-798.2730916801086,"delta":-87,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-746.2080916801084,"delta":-35,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-749.3002479301083,"delta":-38,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-886.8320833668394,"delta":-175,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −14.4% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2008-01-01 → 2009-01-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-836.24973736779,"delta":-125,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-886.8320833668394,"baselineCashFlow":-711.4980916801084,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"verified","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":5.490956196286501,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":106385.62491862987,"totalCashOutlay":196604.05846835958,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (TX avg 0.85%/yr)","homeValueAfter":310345.52452792827,"equityBuilt":155301.58280680492,"netCostOfBuying":83996.67566155468,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":22388.94925707519},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":3.385311935043928,"price":213471,"medianIncome":63058,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":1.801,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 1.80% ($3,421 tax ÷ $189,900 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"verified","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":213471,"secondary":189900,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.12,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1157,"secondary":1027,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.13,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.12,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":189900,"high":213471}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.13,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1027,"high":1157}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 5.5%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.12,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":189900,"high":213471}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.13,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1027,"high":1157}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Webb County, TX is a moderate market — a 15.4x price-to-rent ratio is borderline, leaning renting; individual deals decide the outcome.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Webb County, TX a good rental market?","a":"Mixed. Webb County's 15.4x price-to-rent ratio is moderate; rentals can cash flow, but only on well-priced properties."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Webb County?","a":"The typical home value in Webb County is about $213,471 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA metro HPI), up 5.1% year-over-year, and up 30.6% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Webb County?","a":"The typical rent in Webb County is about $1,157/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Webb County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Webb County — roughly $22,389 ahead of renting, with about $155,302 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Webb County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Webb County's median home value is 3.4x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Webb County?","a":"Webb County's effective property tax rate is about 1.80% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 1.80% ($3,421 tax ÷ $189,900 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $213,471 median home is roughly $320/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Webb County, TX was $213,471 as of April 2026, up 5.1% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Webb County, TX was $1,157/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Webb County, TX has a price-to-rent ratio of 15.4 — a moderate reading where individual deals decide the outcome. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=webb-tx","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=webb-tx"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-13T22:43:41.035Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA metro HPI (quarterly, Laredo, TX MSA) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Laredo, TX MSA","acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":213471,"countyFmr":1157,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Laredo, TX MSA"},"links":{"stateDir":"TX","stateName":"Texas","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}