{"area":{"county":"Waynesboro city","state":"VA","stateName":"Virginia","slug":"waynesboro-va","metro":"Staunton-Stuarts Draft, VA MSA"},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":202252},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":214587},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":221216},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":227123},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":244652},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":245500},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":247019},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":265177},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":259522},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":267241},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":262970},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":273266},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":276421},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":285727},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":278544},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":294110},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":296543},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":302761},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":295528},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":303844},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":318738}],"latest":318738,"yoy":7.484580651035431,"fiveYr":57.59448608666416,"sinceStart":343.1286407429548,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1199}],"latest":1199,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":59994,"population":22841,"povertyRate":11.224625182433329,"medianHomeValue":245500,"medianGrossRent":1020,"medianPropertyTax":1639},"hud":{"county":"Waynesboro city","year":"2027","perUnit":1199,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Virginia","period":"10-2024 to 09-2026","window":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":35217,"ratePer100k":198.2915295953078},"propertyCrime":{"total":230747,"ratePer100k":1299.2354709239428},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":22.2,"ratioVerdict":"Favors renting — price is high relative to rent","priceCagr":9.525088502501378,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":318738,"monthlyRent":1199,"grossRent":1199,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"VA","down":63747.600000000006,"loan":254990.4,"mortgagePI":1653.8628808316794,"monthlyTax":177.43082,"taxRatePct":0.668,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.67% ($1,639 tax ÷ $245,500 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":148.7444,"insuranceRatePct":0.56,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (VA avg 0.56%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":59.95,"egi":1139.05,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":119.9,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":59.95,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":59.95,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":565.97522,"noi":573.0747799999999,"totalExpenses":2219.838100831679,"cashFlow":-1080.7881008316795,"annualCf":-12969.457209980153,"cocReturn":-20.34501253377406,"capRate":2.157539220300058},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1170.7131008316792,"delta":-90,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1116.7581008316795,"delta":-36,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1117.9742008316796,"delta":-37,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-1342.582938735869,"delta":-262,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1989-01-01) (home values −7.6% over 3 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 1989-01-01 → 1989-04-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-1148.7609942404574,"delta":-68,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-1342.582938735869,"baselineCashFlow":-1080.7881008316795,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":9.525088502501378,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":110247.50585776765,"totalCashOutlay":272705.6273342374,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (VA avg 0.56%/yr)","homeValueAfter":602600.007467714,"equityBuilt":371100.666122485,"netCostOfBuying":-34647.438788247586,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":144894.94464601524},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":5.312831283128313,"price":318738,"medianIncome":59994,"label":"Stretched (>5x — historically expensive vs local incomes)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.668,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.67% ($1,639 tax ÷ $245,500 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":318738,"secondary":245500,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.3,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1199,"secondary":1020,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.18,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.3,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":245500,"high":318738}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.18,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1020,"high":1199}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 9.5%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.3,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":245500,"high":318738}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.18,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1020,"high":1199}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Waynesboro city, VA is appreciation-driven for owning: at a 22.2x price-to-rent ratio, the math favors renting — monthly investor cash flow is typically thin or negative unless you buy below median or add units.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Waynesboro city, VA a good rental market?","a":"Tough for cash flow. At 22.2x, Waynesboro city is appreciation-driven — most investors here bank on equity growth, not monthly rent spread."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Waynesboro city?","a":"The typical home value in Waynesboro city is about $318,738 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA metro HPI), up 7.5% year-over-year, and up 57.6% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Waynesboro city?","a":"The typical rent in Waynesboro city is about $1,199/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Waynesboro city?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Waynesboro city — roughly $144,895 ahead of renting, with about $371,101 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Waynesboro city affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Waynesboro city's median home value is 5.3x the local median household income — Stretched (>5x — historically expensive vs local incomes)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Waynesboro city?","a":"Waynesboro city's effective property tax rate is about 0.67% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.67% ($1,639 tax ÷ $245,500 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $318,738 median home is roughly $177/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Waynesboro city, VA was $318,738 as of April 2026, up 7.5% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Waynesboro city, VA was $1,199/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Waynesboro city, VA has a price-to-rent ratio of 22.2 — a high reading that favors renting over buying at the median. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=waynesboro-va","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=waynesboro-va"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T11:25:25.723Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA metro HPI (quarterly, Staunton-Stuarts Draft, VA MSA) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Staunton-Stuarts Draft, VA MSA","acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":318738,"countyFmr":1199,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Staunton-Stuarts Draft, VA MSA"},"links":{"stateDir":"VA","stateName":"Virginia","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}