{"area":{"county":"Wayne County","state":"NE","stateName":"Nebraska","slug":"wayne-ne","metro":null},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":194447},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":201412},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":207759},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":214362},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":219900},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":221600},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":225160},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":228327},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":231542},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":237117},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":235708},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":243012},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":246714},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":245757},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":252586},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":251623},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":254707},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":256133},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":258291},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":261215},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":259866}],"latest":259866,"yoy":2.0254645533887956,"fiveYr":33.64361496963183,"sinceStart":337.278723833883,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1014}],"latest":1014,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":66215,"population":9844,"povertyRate":13.176723109945145,"medianHomeValue":221600,"medianGrossRent":800,"medianPropertyTax":2486},"hud":{"county":"Wayne County","year":"2027","perUnit":1014,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Nebraska","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":8663,"ratePer100k":214.64257291603693},"propertyCrime":{"total":54079,"ratePer100k":1339.911774296013},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":21.4,"ratioVerdict":"Favors renting — price is high relative to rent","priceCagr":5.9724784629186844,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":259866,"monthlyRent":1014,"grossRent":1014,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"NE","down":51973.200000000004,"loan":207892.8,"mortgagePI":1348.3887437023675,"monthlyTax":242.97471000000004,"taxRatePct":1.122,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 1.12% ($2,486 tax ÷ $221,600 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":164.58180000000002,"insuranceRatePct":0.76,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (NE avg 0.76%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":true,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":50.7,"egi":963.3,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":101.4,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":50.7,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":50.7,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":610.3565100000002,"noi":352.94348999999977,"totalExpenses":1958.7452537023678,"cashFlow":-995.4452537023677,"annualCf":-11945.343044428413,"cocReturn":-22.983658971216727,"capRate":1.629809932811525},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1071.4952537023676,"delta":-76,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1025.8652537023677,"delta":-30,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1036.5907037023676,"delta":-41,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-1208.8856886263807,"delta":-213,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −3.5% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2007-04-01 → 2008-04-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-1021.8841941266728,"delta":-26,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-1208.8856886263807,"baselineCashFlow":-995.4452537023677,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":5.9724784629186844,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":93236.83981632728,"totalCashOutlay":238685.08998198918,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (NE avg 0.76%/yr)","homeValueAfter":390032.7751484593,"equityBuilt":201292.15483328106,"netCostOfBuying":89366.13514870813,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":3870.704667619153},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":3.924579022880012,"price":259866,"medianIncome":66215,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":1.122,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 1.12% ($2,486 tax ÷ $221,600 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":259866,"secondary":221600,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.17,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1014,"secondary":800,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.27,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.17,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":221600,"high":259866}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.27,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":800,"high":1014}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (229d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (15d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 6.0%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":229,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":15,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.17,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":221600,"high":259866}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.27,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":800,"high":1014}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Wayne County, NE is appreciation-driven for owning: at a 21.4x price-to-rent ratio, the math favors renting — monthly investor cash flow is typically thin or negative unless you buy below median or add units.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Wayne County, NE a good rental market?","a":"Tough for cash flow. At 21.4x, Wayne County is appreciation-driven — most investors here bank on equity growth, not monthly rent spread."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Wayne County?","a":"The typical home value in Wayne County is about $259,866 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA state HPI), up 2.0% year-over-year, and up 33.6% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Wayne County?","a":"The typical rent in Wayne County is about $1,014/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Wayne County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Wayne County — roughly $3,871 ahead of renting, with about $201,292 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Wayne County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Wayne County's median home value is 3.9x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Wayne County?","a":"Wayne County's effective property tax rate is about 1.12% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 1.12% ($2,486 tax ÷ $221,600 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $259,866 median home is roughly $243/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Wayne County, NE was $259,866 as of April 2026, up 2.0% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Wayne County, NE was $1,014/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Wayne County, NE has a price-to-rent ratio of 21.4 — a high reading that favors renting over buying at the median. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=wayne-ne","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=wayne-ne"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-15T16:08:37.207Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA state HPI (quarterly) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null,"acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":259866,"countyFmr":1014,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null},"links":{"stateDir":"NE","stateName":"Nebraska","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}