{"area":{"county":"Washington County","state":"UT","stateName":"Utah","slug":"washington-ut","metro":"St. George, UT MSA"},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":396853},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":429614},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":450550},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":467951},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":506041},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":510700},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":482790},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":484859},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":483708},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":501780},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":492929},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":497327},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":496423},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":507699},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":513180},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":502561},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":514879},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":513481},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":515386},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":521456},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":514221}],"latest":514221,"yoy":-0.12779701638637428,"fiveYr":29.57467878534369,"sinceStart":473.5872838817624,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1657}],"latest":1657,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":80632,"population":196431,"povertyRate":9.836875418103226,"medianHomeValue":510700,"medianGrossRent":1566,"medianPropertyTax":2158},"hud":{"county":"Washington County","year":"2027","perUnit":1657,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Utah","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":14654,"ratePer100k":207.04150211477904},"propertyCrime":{"total":84683,"ratePer100k":1196.4579994258108},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":25.9,"ratioVerdict":"Favors renting — price is high relative to rent","priceCagr":5.319092732321695,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":514221,"monthlyRent":1657,"grossRent":1657,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"UT","down":102844.20000000001,"loan":411376.8,"mortgagePI":2668.1820945232353,"monthlyTax":181.2629025,"taxRatePct":0.423,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.42% ($2,158 tax ÷ $510,700 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":214.25875,"insuranceRatePct":0.5,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (UT avg 0.5%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":82.85000000000001,"egi":1574.15,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":165.70000000000002,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":82.85000000000001,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":82.85000000000001,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":726.9216525,"noi":847.2283475,"totalExpenses":3395.1037470232354,"cashFlow":-1820.9537470232353,"annualCf":-21851.444964278824,"cocReturn":-21.24713397963018,"capRate":1.977114931128834},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1945.2287470232354,"delta":-124,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1870.6637470232354,"delta":-50,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1874.518434523235,"delta":-54,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-2243.3081677133646,"delta":-422,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1986-04-01) (home values −18.1% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2009-01-01 → 2010-01-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-2046.024620500022,"delta":-225,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-2243.3081677133646,"baselineCashFlow":-1820.9537470232353,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"verified","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":5.319092732321695,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":152360.39800360386,"totalCashOutlay":413638.39805236197,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (UT avg 0.5%/yr)","homeValueAfter":739093.8239799801,"equityBuilt":365615.2214729524,"netCostOfBuying":150867.37657940958,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":1493.021424194274},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":6.377381188609981,"price":514221,"medianIncome":80632,"label":"Stretched (>5x — historically expensive vs local incomes)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.423,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.42% ($2,158 tax ÷ $510,700 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"verified","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":514221,"secondary":510700,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.01,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1657,"secondary":1566,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.06,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.01,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":510700,"high":514221}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.06,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1566,"high":1657}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (229d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (15d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 5.3%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":229,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":15,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.01,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":510700,"high":514221}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.06,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1566,"high":1657}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Washington County, UT is appreciation-driven for owning: at a 25.9x price-to-rent ratio, the math favors renting — monthly investor cash flow is typically thin or negative unless you buy below median or add units.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Washington County, UT a good rental market?","a":"Tough for cash flow. At 25.9x, Washington County is appreciation-driven — most investors here bank on equity growth, not monthly rent spread."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Washington County?","a":"The typical home value in Washington County is about $514,221 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA metro HPI), down 0.1% year-over-year, and up 29.6% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Washington County?","a":"The typical rent in Washington County is about $1,657/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Washington County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Washington County — roughly $1,493 ahead of renting, with about $365,615 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Washington County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Washington County's median home value is 6.4x the local median household income — Stretched (>5x — historically expensive vs local incomes)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Washington County?","a":"Washington County's effective property tax rate is about 0.42% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.42% ($2,158 tax ÷ $510,700 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $514,221 median home is roughly $181/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Washington County, UT was $514,221 as of April 2026, down 0.1% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Washington County, UT was $1,657/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Washington County, UT has a price-to-rent ratio of 25.9 — a high reading that favors renting over buying at the median. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=washington-ut","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=washington-ut"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-15T12:22:21.506Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA metro HPI (quarterly, St. George, UT MSA) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"St. George, UT MSA","acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":514221,"countyFmr":1657,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"St. George, UT MSA"},"links":{"stateDir":"UT","stateName":"Utah","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}