{"area":{"county":"Washington County","state":"PA","stateName":"Pennsylvania","slug":"washington-pa","metro":"Pittsburgh, PA HUD Metro FMR Area"},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":208961},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":214646},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":219241},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":224666},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":228171},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":228500},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":230119},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":233356},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":236092},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":243019},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":247148},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":247669},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":253800},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":257490},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":259925},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":261880},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":263923},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":263656},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":267078},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":275349},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":271461}],"latest":271461,"yoy":2.856136069990111,"fiveYr":29.909887490967215,"sinceStart":295.8080601889653,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1389}],"latest":1389,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":78958,"population":210042,"povertyRate":9.61073235100066,"medianHomeValue":228500,"medianGrossRent":949,"medianPropertyTax":2485},"hud":{"county":"Washington County","year":"2027","perUnit":1389,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Pennsylvania","period":"10-2024 to 09-2026","window":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":55584,"ratePer100k":212.4973554431918},"propertyCrime":{"total":327305,"ratePer100k":1251.285386502121},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":16.3,"ratioVerdict":"Borderline — at 16.3× the market leans renting (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":5.373535824281728,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":271461,"monthlyRent":1389,"grossRent":1389,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"PA","down":54292.200000000004,"loan":217168.8,"mortgagePI":1408.552703140035,"monthlyTax":246.12464,"taxRatePct":1.088,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 1.09% ($2,485 tax ÷ $228,500 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":99.5357,"insuranceRatePct":0.44,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (PA avg 0.44%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":69.45,"egi":1319.55,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":138.9,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":69.45,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":69.45,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":623.4603400000001,"noi":696.0896599999999,"totalExpenses":2032.013043140035,"cashFlow":-712.4630431400351,"annualCf":-8549.556517680421,"cocReturn":-15.747301670738006,"capRate":3.0770813929072682},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-816.6380431400349,"delta":-104,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-754.1330431400349,"delta":-42,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-737.3469681400351,"delta":-25,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-935.4270088181445,"delta":-223,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −2.8% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2007-10-01 → 2008-10-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-741.8069107281415,"delta":-29,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-935.4270088181445,"baselineCashFlow":-712.4630431400351,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":5.373535824281728,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":127717.91963005779,"totalCashOutlay":236769.82554435768,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (PA avg 0.44%/yr)","homeValueAfter":391587.04581626394,"equityBuilt":194424.97947677108,"netCostOfBuying":96637.0460675866,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":31080.873562471184},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":3.438043010207959,"price":271461,"medianIncome":78958,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":1.088,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 1.09% ($2,485 tax ÷ $228,500 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":271461,"secondary":228500,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.19,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1389,"secondary":949,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.46,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":true}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.19,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":228500,"high":271461}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.46,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":949,"high":1389}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 5.4%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.19,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":228500,"high":271461}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.46,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":949,"high":1389}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Washington County, PA is a moderate market — a 16.3x price-to-rent ratio is borderline, leaning renting; individual deals decide the outcome.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Washington County, PA a good rental market?","a":"Mixed. Washington County's 16.3x price-to-rent ratio is moderate; rentals can cash flow, but only on well-priced properties."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Washington County?","a":"The typical home value in Washington County is about $271,461 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA metro HPI), up 2.9% year-over-year, and up 29.9% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Washington County?","a":"The typical rent in Washington County is about $1,389/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Washington County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Washington County — roughly $31,081 ahead of renting, with about $194,425 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Washington County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Washington County's median home value is 3.4x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Washington County?","a":"Washington County's effective property tax rate is about 1.09% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 1.09% ($2,485 tax ÷ $228,500 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $271,461 median home is roughly $246/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Washington County, PA was $271,461 as of April 2026, up 2.9% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Washington County, PA was $1,389/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Washington County, PA has a price-to-rent ratio of 16.3 — a moderate reading where individual deals decide the outcome. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=washington-pa","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=washington-pa"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T11:37:35.088Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA metro HPI (quarterly, Pittsburgh, PA HUD Metro FMR Area) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Pittsburgh, PA HUD Metro FMR Area","acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":271461,"countyFmr":1389,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Pittsburgh, PA HUD Metro FMR Area"},"links":{"stateDir":"PA","stateName":"Pennsylvania","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}