{"area":{"county":"Warren County","state":"PA","stateName":"Pennsylvania","slug":"warren-pa","metro":null},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":113316},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":116992},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":120241},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":124464},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":126670},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":127500},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":129028},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":130343},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":132992},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":136320},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":138065},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":139692},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":142572},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":144223},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":146663},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":149062},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":149613},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":151096},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":152767},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":154649},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":155495}],"latest":155495,"yoy":3.931476542813793,"fiveYr":37.222457552331534,"sinceStart":278.5267411572823,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1014}],"latest":1014,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":60480,"population":37920,"povertyRate":10.814078452444923,"medianHomeValue":127500,"medianGrossRent":755,"medianPropertyTax":1687},"hud":{"county":"Warren County","year":"2027","perUnit":1014,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Pennsylvania","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":56558,"ratePer100k":216.22095259707905},"propertyCrime":{"total":330750,"ratePer100k":1264.4556043616092},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":12.8,"ratioVerdict":"Favorable for buying — price-to-rent favors owning (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":6.534139320451393,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":155495,"monthlyRent":1014,"grossRent":1014,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"PA","down":31099,"loan":124396,"mortgagePI":806.8300882069975,"monthlyTax":171.4332375,"taxRatePct":1.323,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 1.32% ($1,687 tax ÷ $127,500 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":57.014833333333335,"insuranceRatePct":0.44,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (PA avg 0.44%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":50.7,"egi":963.3,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":101.4,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":50.7,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":50.7,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":431.2480708333333,"noi":532.0519291666667,"totalExpenses":1238.0781590403308,"cashFlow":-274.7781590403308,"annualCf":-3297.33790848397,"cocReturn":-10.602713619357438,"capRate":4.105999003183382},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-350.82815904033083,"delta":-76,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-305.19815904033084,"delta":-30,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-289.0318673736642,"delta":-14,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-402.4936756085216,"delta":-128,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −5.0% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2008-01-01 → 2009-01-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-312.56352842710044,"delta":-38,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-402.4936756085216,"baselineCashFlow":-274.7781590403308,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":6.534139320451393,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":93236.83981632728,"totalCashOutlay":136947.45489319874,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (PA avg 0.44%/yr)","homeValueAfter":242179.86897820217,"equityBuilt":129243.88367843755,"netCostOfBuying":38802.57121476119,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":54434.26860156609},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":2.5710152116402116,"price":155495,"medianIncome":60480,"label":"Affordable (≤3x income — historical rule of thumb)"},"countyTaxRatePct":1.323,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 1.32% ($1,687 tax ÷ $127,500 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":155495,"secondary":127500,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.22,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1014,"secondary":755,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.34,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.22,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":127500,"high":155495}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.34,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":755,"high":1014}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (229d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (15d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 6.5%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":229,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":15,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.22,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":127500,"high":155495}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.34,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":755,"high":1014}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Warren County, PA leans favorable for buying: a price-to-rent ratio of 12.8 favors owning at the median, and modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — not a claim of strong rental yield.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Warren County, PA a good rental market?","a":"For owning at the median, yes — Warren County's price-to-rent ratio of 12.8 is in the favorable range, but modeled investor cash flow is negative, so it is not a claim of strong rental yield."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Warren County?","a":"The typical home value in Warren County is about $155,495 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA state HPI), up 3.9% year-over-year, and up 37.2% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Warren County?","a":"The typical rent in Warren County is about $1,014/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Warren County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Warren County — roughly $54,434 ahead of renting, with about $129,244 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Warren County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Warren County's median home value is 2.6x the local median household income — Affordable (≤3x income — historical rule of thumb)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Warren County?","a":"Warren County's effective property tax rate is about 1.32% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 1.32% ($1,687 tax ÷ $127,500 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $155,495 median home is roughly $171/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Warren County, PA was $155,495 as of April 2026, up 3.9% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Warren County, PA was $1,014/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Warren County, PA has a price-to-rent ratio of 12.8 — a reading that favors owning (owner-occupant math — not automatically strong investor cash flow). (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=warren-pa","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=warren-pa"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-15T12:10:36.653Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA state HPI (quarterly) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null,"acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":155495,"countyFmr":1014,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null},"links":{"stateDir":"PA","stateName":"Pennsylvania","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}