{"area":{"county":"Warren County","state":"MS","stateName":"Mississippi","slug":"warren-ms","metro":null},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":132528},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":137352},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":144431},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":148472},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":152871},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":156400},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":155387},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":159161},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":160555},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":160212},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":171854},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":162275},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":165771},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":168821},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":170846},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":172654},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":177729},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":176319},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":176188},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":179363},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":178557}],"latest":178557,"yoy":0.465877825228297,"fiveYr":34.73152843172764,"sinceStart":227.91030797201256,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1019}],"latest":1019,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":59401,"population":43020,"povertyRate":19.516733002048937,"medianHomeValue":156400,"medianGrossRent":888,"medianPropertyTax":1244},"hud":{"county":"Warren County","year":"2027","perUnit":1019,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Mississippi","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":9790,"ratePer100k":165.6985403634197},"propertyCrime":{"total":57848,"ratePer100k":979.0938879410729},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":14.6,"ratioVerdict":"Favorable for buying — price-to-rent favors owning (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":6.144474791636267,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":178557,"monthlyRent":1019,"grossRent":1019,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"MS","down":35711.4,"loan":142845.6,"mortgagePI":926.4938426314471,"monthlyTax":118.29401250000001,"taxRatePct":0.795,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.80% ($1,244 tax ÷ $156,400 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":110.11015000000002,"insuranceRatePct":0.74,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (MS avg 0.74%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":true,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":50.95,"egi":968.05,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":101.9,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":50.95,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":50.95,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":432.20416250000005,"noi":535.8458374999999,"totalExpenses":1358.6980051314472,"cashFlow":-390.64800513144723,"annualCf":-4687.776061577367,"cocReturn":-13.12683362057317,"capRate":3.6011750029402365},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-467.0730051314472,"delta":-76,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-421.21800513144717,"delta":-31,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-418.17554263144723,"delta":-28,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-537.3054506561679,"delta":-147,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −6.4% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2008-01-01 → 2009-01-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-439.3847477178557,"delta":-49,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-537.3054506561679,"baselineCashFlow":-390.64800513144723,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"verified","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":6.144474791636267,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":93696.58754717701,"totalCashOutlay":149515.87610090818,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (MS avg 0.74%/yr)","homeValueAfter":271055.7520846734,"equityBuilt":141369.84110895026,"netCostOfBuying":43857.43499195791,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":49839.1525552191},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":3.005959495631387,"price":178557,"medianIncome":59401,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.795,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.80% ($1,244 tax ÷ $156,400 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"verified","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":178557,"secondary":156400,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.14,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1019,"secondary":888,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.15,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.14,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":156400,"high":178557}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.15,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":888,"high":1019}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 6.1%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.14,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":156400,"high":178557}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.15,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":888,"high":1019}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Warren County, MS leans favorable for buying: a price-to-rent ratio of 14.6 favors owning at the median, and modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — not a claim of strong rental yield.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Warren County, MS a good rental market?","a":"For owning at the median, yes — Warren County's price-to-rent ratio of 14.6 is in the favorable range, but modeled investor cash flow is negative, so it is not a claim of strong rental yield."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Warren County?","a":"The typical home value in Warren County is about $178,557 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA state HPI), up 0.5% year-over-year, and up 34.7% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Warren County?","a":"The typical rent in Warren County is about $1,019/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Warren County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Warren County — roughly $49,839 ahead of renting, with about $141,370 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Warren County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Warren County's median home value is 3.0x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Warren County?","a":"Warren County's effective property tax rate is about 0.80% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.80% ($1,244 tax ÷ $156,400 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $178,557 median home is roughly $118/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Warren County, MS was $178,557 as of April 2026, up 0.5% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Warren County, MS was $1,019/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Warren County, MS has a price-to-rent ratio of 14.6 — a reading that favors owning (owner-occupant math — not automatically strong investor cash flow). (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=warren-ms","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=warren-ms"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T08:47:52.183Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA state HPI (quarterly) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null,"acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":178557,"countyFmr":1019,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null},"links":{"stateDir":"MS","stateName":"Mississippi","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}