{"area":{"county":"Walker County","state":"AL","stateName":"Alabama","slug":"walker-al","metro":"Walker County, AL HUD Metro FMR Area"},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":116246},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":122113},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":124660},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":130207},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":134033},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":135900},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":135200},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":137593},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":137411},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":141531},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":143932},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":143097},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":144658},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":145053},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":148991},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":149030},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":152361},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":149984},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":150626},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":153007},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":153332}],"latest":153332,"yoy":0.6373021967563878,"fiveYr":31.90303322264852,"sinceStart":296.7090114097954,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":949}],"latest":949,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":56509,"population":64841,"povertyRate":18.456534037337356,"medianHomeValue":135900,"medianGrossRent":756,"medianPropertyTax":356},"hud":{"county":"Walker County","year":"2027","perUnit":949,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Alabama","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":33406,"ratePer100k":321.6390710113135},"propertyCrime":{"total":140403,"ratePer100k":1351.825734514801},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":13.5,"ratioVerdict":"Favorable for buying — price-to-rent favors owning (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":5.6949528549507855,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":153332,"monthlyRent":949,"grossRent":949,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"AL","down":30666.4,"loan":122665.6,"mortgagePI":795.6067467439813,"monthlyTax":33.477486666666664,"taxRatePct":0.262,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.26% ($356 tax ÷ $135,900 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":91.99919999999999,"insuranceRatePct":0.72,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (AL avg 0.72%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":true,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":47.45,"egi":901.55,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":94.9,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":47.45,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":47.45,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":315.27668666666665,"noi":586.2733133333334,"totalExpenses":1110.883433410648,"cashFlow":-209.3334334106479,"annualCf":-2512.001200927775,"cocReturn":-8.191379493281815,"capRate":4.588265828398508},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-280.50843341064797,"delta":-71,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-237.80343341064793,"delta":-28,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-232.33323341064795,"delta":-23,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-335.2723741253578,"delta":-126,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −10.9% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2010-01-01 → 2011-01-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-286.9392181414954,"delta":-78,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-335.2723741253578,"baselineCashFlow":-209.3334334106479,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":5.6949528549507855,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":87260.11931528065,"totalCashOutlay":124657.65515053846,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (AL avg 0.72%/yr)","homeValueAfter":225950.1042731434,"equityBuilt":114585.10541154967,"netCostOfBuying":40738.9497389888,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":46521.16957629185},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":2.7134084836043817,"price":153332,"medianIncome":56509,"label":"Affordable (≤3x income — historical rule of thumb)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.262,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.26% ($356 tax ÷ $135,900 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":153332,"secondary":135900,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.13,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":949,"secondary":756,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.26,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.13,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":135900,"high":153332}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.26,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":756,"high":949}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 5.7%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.13,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":135900,"high":153332}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.26,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":756,"high":949}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Walker County, AL leans favorable for buying: a price-to-rent ratio of 13.5 favors owning at the median, and modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — not a claim of strong rental yield.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Walker County, AL a good rental market?","a":"For owning at the median, yes — Walker County's price-to-rent ratio of 13.5 is in the favorable range, but modeled investor cash flow is negative, so it is not a claim of strong rental yield."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Walker County?","a":"The typical home value in Walker County is about $153,332 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA metro HPI), up 0.6% year-over-year, and up 31.9% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Walker County?","a":"The typical rent in Walker County is about $949/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Walker County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Walker County — roughly $46,521 ahead of renting, with about $114,585 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Walker County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Walker County's median home value is 2.7x the local median household income — Affordable (≤3x income — historical rule of thumb)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Walker County?","a":"Walker County's effective property tax rate is about 0.26% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.26% ($356 tax ÷ $135,900 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $153,332 median home is roughly $33/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Walker County, AL was $153,332 as of April 2026, up 0.6% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Walker County, AL was $949/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Walker County, AL has a price-to-rent ratio of 13.5 — a reading that favors owning (owner-occupant math — not automatically strong investor cash flow). (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=walker-al","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=walker-al"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T04:38:08.137Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA metro HPI (quarterly, Walker County, AL HUD Metro FMR Area) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Walker County, AL HUD Metro FMR Area","acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":153332,"countyFmr":949,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Walker County, AL HUD Metro FMR Area"},"links":{"stateDir":"AL","stateName":"Alabama","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}