{"area":{"county":"Virginia Beach city","state":"VA","stateName":"Virginia","slug":"virginia-beach-va","metro":"Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC HUD Metro FMR Area"},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":333261},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":348155},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":355772},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":376413},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":383789},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":382500},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":387548},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":389625},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":399700},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":411293},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":410703},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":412408},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":421226},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":429018},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":443431},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":451091},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":450501},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":447681},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":449211},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":450905},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":458620}],"latest":458620,"yoy":1.802215755347935,"fiveYr":37.615862642193356,"sinceStart":319.70111555462006,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1667}],"latest":1667,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":92968,"population":456349,"povertyRate":8.591835915012117,"medianHomeValue":382500,"medianGrossRent":1714,"medianPropertyTax":3061},"hud":{"county":"Virginia Beach city","year":"2027","perUnit":1667,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Virginia","period":"11-2023 to 10-2025","window":{"from":"11-2023","to":"10-2025","fellBack":true},"violentCrime":{"total":38972,"ratePer100k":219.43429285255235},"propertyCrime":{"total":268501,"ratePer100k":1511.8117383045048},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2023","to":"10-2025","fellBack":true},"priceToRentRatio":22.9,"ratioVerdict":"Favors renting — price is high relative to rent","priceCagr":6.595162606128957,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":458620,"monthlyRent":1667,"grossRent":1667,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"VA","down":91724,"loan":366896,"mortgagePI":2379.6804723849204,"monthlyTax":305.74666666666667,"taxRatePct":0.8,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.80% ($3,061 tax ÷ $382,500 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":214.0226666666667,"insuranceRatePct":0.56,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (VA avg 0.56%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":83.35000000000001,"egi":1583.65,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":166.70000000000002,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":83.35000000000001,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":83.35000000000001,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":853.1693333333335,"noi":730.4806666666666,"totalExpenses":3232.849805718254,"cashFlow":-1649.1998057182539,"annualCf":-19790.397668619047,"cocReturn":-21.576029903426637,"capRate":1.9113357463695433},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1774.224805718254,"delta":-125,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1699.209805718254,"delta":-50,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1702.7054723849205,"delta":-54,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-2025.8864529320138,"delta":-377,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −12.6% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2010-04-01 → 2011-04-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-1806.981419656281,"delta":-158,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-2025.8864529320138,"baselineCashFlow":-1649.1998057182539,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":6.595162606128957,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":153279.89346530332,"totalCashOutlay":383740.2403122747,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (VA avg 0.56%/yr)","homeValueAfter":717159.0198064613,"equityBuilt":384063.41172788595,"netCostOfBuying":91400.82858438877,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":61879.06488091455},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":4.933095258583599,"price":458620,"medianIncome":92968,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.8,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.80% ($3,061 tax ÷ $382,500 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":458620,"secondary":382500,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.2,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1667,"secondary":1714,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":0.97,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.2,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":382500,"high":458620}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":0.97,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1667,"high":1714}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 6.6%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.2,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":382500,"high":458620}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":0.97,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1667,"high":1714}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Virginia Beach city, VA is appreciation-driven for owning: at a 22.9x price-to-rent ratio, the math favors renting — monthly investor cash flow is typically thin or negative unless you buy below median or add units.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Virginia Beach city, VA a good rental market?","a":"Tough for cash flow. At 22.9x, Virginia Beach city is appreciation-driven — most investors here bank on equity growth, not monthly rent spread."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Virginia Beach city?","a":"The typical home value in Virginia Beach city is about $458,620 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA metro HPI), up 1.8% year-over-year, and up 37.6% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Virginia Beach city?","a":"The typical rent in Virginia Beach city is about $1,667/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Virginia Beach city?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Virginia Beach city — roughly $61,879 ahead of renting, with about $384,063 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Virginia Beach city affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Virginia Beach city's median home value is 4.9x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Virginia Beach city?","a":"Virginia Beach city's effective property tax rate is about 0.80% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.80% ($3,061 tax ÷ $382,500 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $458,620 median home is roughly $306/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Virginia Beach city, VA was $458,620 as of April 2026, up 1.8% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Virginia Beach city, VA was $1,667/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Virginia Beach city, VA has a price-to-rent ratio of 22.9 — a high reading that favors renting over buying at the median. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=virginia-beach-va","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=virginia-beach-va"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T08:46:08.219Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA metro HPI (quarterly, Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC HUD Metro FMR Area) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC HUD Metro FMR Area","acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":458620,"countyFmr":1667,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC HUD Metro FMR Area"},"links":{"stateDir":"VA","stateName":"Virginia","cityPages":[{"city":"Virginia Beach","state":"VA"}],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}