{"area":{"county":"Vilas County","state":"WI","stateName":"Wisconsin","slug":"vilas-wi","metro":null},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":261689},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":270529},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":278161},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":288347},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":297333},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":300000},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":305061},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":309276},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":317084},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":326231},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":331630},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":338827},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":342977},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":347997},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":354033},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":360770},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":364582},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":368877},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":374027},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":377903},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":382150}],"latest":382150,"yoy":4.81866905113253,"fiveYr":46.03212209913294,"sinceStart":374.20799880874085,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1022}],"latest":1022,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":68431,"population":23647,"povertyRate":11.064539583422436,"medianHomeValue":300000,"medianGrossRent":847,"medianPropertyTax":2197},"hud":{"county":"Vilas County","year":"2027","perUnit":1022,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Wisconsin","period":"06-2024 to 05-2026","window":{"from":"06-2024","to":"05-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":26633,"ratePer100k":222.95286940585694},"propertyCrime":{"total":112965,"ratePer100k":945.6640593411418},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"06-2024","to":"05-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":31.2,"ratioVerdict":"Favors renting — price is high relative to rent","priceCagr":7.868386411458861,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":382150,"monthlyRent":1022,"grossRent":1022,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"WI","down":76430,"loan":305720,"mortgagePI":1982.8941008283487,"monthlyTax":233.1115,"taxRatePct":0.732,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.73% ($2,197 tax ÷ $300,000 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":133.7525,"insuranceRatePct":0.42,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (WI avg 0.42%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":51.1,"egi":970.9,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":102.2,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":51.1,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":51.1,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":571.264,"noi":399.63599999999997,"totalExpenses":2554.158100828349,"cashFlow":-1583.2581008283487,"annualCf":-18999.097209940184,"cocReturn":-24.858167224833423,"capRate":1.2549082820881852},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1659.9081008283488,"delta":-77,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1613.9181008283485,"delta":-31,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1616.6962258283488,"delta":-33,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-1897.1362619044867,"delta":-314,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −5.3% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2009-01-01 → 2010-01-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-1623.7206185127552,"delta":-40,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-1897.1362619044867,"baselineCashFlow":-1583.2581008283487,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":7.868386411458861,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":93972.43618568688,"totalCashOutlay":342499.98979198793,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (WI avg 0.42%/yr)","homeValueAfter":649371.3734871738,"equityBuilt":371815.9100812436,"netCostOfBuying":47114.07971074432,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":46858.35647494256},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":5.584457336587219,"price":382150,"medianIncome":68431,"label":"Stretched (>5x — historically expensive vs local incomes)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.732,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.73% ($2,197 tax ÷ $300,000 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":382150,"secondary":300000,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.27,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1022,"secondary":847,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.21,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.27,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":300000,"high":382150}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.21,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":847,"high":1022}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (228d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (14d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 7.9%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":228,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":14,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.27,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":300000,"high":382150}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.21,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":847,"high":1022}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Vilas County, WI is appreciation-driven for owning: at a 31.2x price-to-rent ratio, the math favors renting — monthly investor cash flow is typically thin or negative unless you buy below median or add units.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Vilas County, WI a good rental market?","a":"Tough for cash flow. At 31.2x, Vilas County is appreciation-driven — most investors here bank on equity growth, not monthly rent spread."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Vilas County?","a":"The typical home value in Vilas County is about $382,150 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA state HPI), up 4.8% year-over-year, and up 46.0% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Vilas County?","a":"The typical rent in Vilas County is about $1,022/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Vilas County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Vilas County — roughly $46,858 ahead of renting, with about $371,816 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Vilas County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Vilas County's median home value is 5.6x the local median household income — Stretched (>5x — historically expensive vs local incomes)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Vilas County?","a":"Vilas County's effective property tax rate is about 0.73% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.73% ($2,197 tax ÷ $300,000 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $382,150 median home is roughly $233/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Vilas County, WI was $382,150 as of April 2026, up 4.8% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Vilas County, WI was $1,022/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Vilas County, WI has a price-to-rent ratio of 31.2 — a high reading that favors renting over buying at the median. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=vilas-wi","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=vilas-wi"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T20:19:41.029Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA state HPI (quarterly) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null,"acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":382150,"countyFmr":1022,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null},"links":{"stateDir":"WI","stateName":"Wisconsin","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}