{"area":{"county":"Ventura County","state":"CA","stateName":"California","slug":"ventura-ca","metro":"Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA MSA"},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":744055},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":772438},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":794510},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":827020},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":846740},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":822700},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":820540},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":822016},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":838848},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":880962},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":865049},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":879165},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":901559},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":903163},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":898757},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":913728},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":895078},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":902243},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":916060},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":903056},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":894778}],"latest":894778,"yoy":-0.03351663207005423,"fiveYr":20.25697025085511,"sinceStart":318.3492844218568,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":2424}],"latest":2424,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":109797,"population":837469,"povertyRate":9.33818155461195,"medianHomeValue":822700,"medianGrossRent":2317,"medianPropertyTax":5574},"hud":{"county":"Ventura County","year":"2027","perUnit":2424,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"California","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":307778,"ratePer100k":390.27154671662436},"propertyCrime":{"total":1264040,"ratePer100k":1602.839858312426},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":30.8,"ratioVerdict":"Favors renting — price is high relative to rent","priceCagr":3.758633917914622,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":894778,"monthlyRent":2424,"grossRent":2424,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"CA","down":178955.6,"loan":715822.4,"mortgagePI":4642.810461208919,"monthlyTax":505.5495700000001,"taxRatePct":0.678,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.68% ($5,574 tax ÷ $822,700 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":484.67141666666674,"insuranceRatePct":0.65,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (CA avg 0.65%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":121.2,"egi":2302.8,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":242.4,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":121.2,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":121.2,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":1475.0209866666669,"noi":827.7790133333333,"totalExpenses":6117.831447875586,"cashFlow":-3815.031447875586,"annualCf":-45780.37737450703,"cocReturn":-25.581975291361115,"capRate":1.1101466687826478},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-3996.8314478755856,"delta":-182,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-3887.751447875586,"delta":-73,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-3936.1993020422524,"delta":-121,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-4549.955622182493,"delta":-735,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −23.0% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2007-10-01 → 2008-10-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-4232.569749096457,"delta":-418,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-4549.955622182493,"baselineCashFlow":-3815.031447875586,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"verified","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":3.758633917914622,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":222885.69991595397,"totalCashOutlay":737327.2739565374,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (CA avg 0.65%/yr)","homeValueAfter":1158470.5929683805,"equityBuilt":508593.5226152971,"netCostOfBuying":407689.3513412402,"buyingCheaper":false,"savings":184803.65142528625},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":8.149384773718772,"price":894778,"medianIncome":109797,"label":"Stretched (>5x — historically expensive vs local incomes)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.678,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.68% ($5,574 tax ÷ $822,700 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"verified","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":894778,"secondary":822700,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.09,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":2424,"secondary":2317,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.05,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.09,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":822700,"high":894778}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.05,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":2317,"high":2424}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (229d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (15d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 3.8%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":229,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":15,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.09,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":822700,"high":894778}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.05,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":2317,"high":2424}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Ventura County, CA is appreciation-driven for owning: at a 30.8x price-to-rent ratio, the math favors renting — monthly investor cash flow is typically thin or negative unless you buy below median or add units.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Ventura County, CA a good rental market?","a":"Tough for cash flow. At 30.8x, Ventura County is appreciation-driven — most investors here bank on equity growth, not monthly rent spread."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Ventura County?","a":"The typical home value in Ventura County is about $894,778 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA metro HPI), down 0.0% year-over-year, and up 20.3% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Ventura County?","a":"The typical rent in Ventura County is about $2,424/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Ventura County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, renting is cheaper in Ventura County by about $184,804 — buying only pays off if prices appreciate faster than projected."},{"q":"Is Ventura County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Ventura County's median home value is 8.1x the local median household income — Stretched (>5x — historically expensive vs local incomes)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Ventura County?","a":"Ventura County's effective property tax rate is about 0.68% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.68% ($5,574 tax ÷ $822,700 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $894,778 median home is roughly $506/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Ventura County, CA was $894,778 as of April 2026, down 0.0% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Ventura County, CA was $2,424/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Ventura County, CA has a price-to-rent ratio of 30.8 — a high reading that favors renting over buying at the median. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=ventura-ca","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=ventura-ca"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-15T12:12:16.422Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA metro HPI (quarterly, Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA MSA) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA MSA","acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":894778,"countyFmr":2424,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA MSA"},"links":{"stateDir":"CA","stateName":"California","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}