{"area":{"county":"Umatilla County","state":"OR","stateName":"Oregon","slug":"umatilla-or","metro":null},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":253374},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":263409},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":271703},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":283538},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":286323},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":282600},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":281107},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":277707},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":281695},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":285427},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":283850},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":288091},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":288711},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":291239},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":292653},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":292340},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":292653},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":292205},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":293810},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":294029},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":293502}],"latest":293502,"yoy":0.2901046632018124,"fiveYr":15.83745767126856,"sinceStart":529.1710433235439,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1131}],"latest":1131,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":67728,"population":79940,"povertyRate":11.782770749120688,"medianHomeValue":282600,"medianGrossRent":997,"medianPropertyTax":2557},"hud":{"county":"Umatilla County","year":"2027","perUnit":1131,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Oregon","period":"09-2024 to 08-2026","window":{"from":"09-2024","to":"08-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":25550,"ratePer100k":298.9292832763866},"propertyCrime":{"total":177482,"ratePer100k":2076.4996890199473},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"09-2024","to":"08-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":21.6,"ratioVerdict":"Favors renting — price is high relative to rent","priceCagr":2.984425779134159,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":293502,"monthlyRent":1131,"grossRent":1131,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"OR","down":58700.4,"loan":234801.6,"mortgagePI":1522.9187083117156,"monthlyTax":221.34942500000002,"taxRatePct":0.905,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.91% ($2,557 tax ÷ $282,600 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":107.61740000000002,"insuranceRatePct":0.44,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (OR avg 0.44%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":56.550000000000004,"egi":1074.45,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":113.10000000000001,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":56.550000000000004,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":56.550000000000004,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":555.166825,"noi":519.283175,"totalExpenses":2078.0855333117156,"cashFlow":-1003.6355333117156,"annualCf":-12043.626399740588,"cocReturn":-20.517111296925723,"capRate":2.123119467669726},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1088.4605333117156,"delta":-85,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1037.5655333117156,"delta":-34,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1030.5398833117156,"delta":-27,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-1244.702831577236,"delta":-241,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −11.5% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2010-04-01 → 2011-04-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-1101.0828963006722,"delta":-97,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-1244.702831577236,"baselineCashFlow":-1003.6355333117156,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"verified","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":2.984425779134159,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":103994.93671821119,"totalCashOutlay":238326.99335298047,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (OR avg 0.44%/yr)","homeValueAfter":360588.5461744979,"equityBuilt":147418.10624104957,"netCostOfBuying":149609.2871119309,"buyingCheaper":false,"savings":45614.35039371971},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":4.333540042523033,"price":293502,"medianIncome":67728,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.905,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.91% ($2,557 tax ÷ $282,600 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"verified","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":293502,"secondary":282600,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.04,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1131,"secondary":997,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.13,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.04,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":282600,"high":293502}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.13,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":997,"high":1131}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (228d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (14d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 3.0%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":228,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":14,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.04,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":282600,"high":293502}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.13,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":997,"high":1131}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Umatilla County, OR is appreciation-driven for owning: at a 21.6x price-to-rent ratio, the math favors renting — monthly investor cash flow is typically thin or negative unless you buy below median or add units.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Umatilla County, OR a good rental market?","a":"Tough for cash flow. At 21.6x, Umatilla County is appreciation-driven — most investors here bank on equity growth, not monthly rent spread."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Umatilla County?","a":"The typical home value in Umatilla County is about $293,502 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA state HPI), up 0.3% year-over-year, and up 15.8% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Umatilla County?","a":"The typical rent in Umatilla County is about $1,131/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Umatilla County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, renting is cheaper in Umatilla County by about $45,614 — buying only pays off if prices appreciate faster than projected."},{"q":"Is Umatilla County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Umatilla County's median home value is 4.3x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Umatilla County?","a":"Umatilla County's effective property tax rate is about 0.91% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.91% ($2,557 tax ÷ $282,600 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $293,502 median home is roughly $221/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Umatilla County, OR was $293,502 as of April 2026, up 0.3% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Umatilla County, OR was $1,131/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Umatilla County, OR has a price-to-rent ratio of 21.6 — a high reading that favors renting over buying at the median. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=umatilla-or","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=umatilla-or"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T22:15:25.077Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA state HPI (quarterly) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null,"acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":293502,"countyFmr":1131,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null},"links":{"stateDir":"OR","stateName":"Oregon","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}