{"area":{"county":"Tuscaloosa County","state":"AL","stateName":"Alabama","slug":"tuscaloosa-al","metro":"Tuscaloosa, AL HUD Metro FMR Area"},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":213057},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":221949},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":225778},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":231896},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":246178},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":248700},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":244515},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":250652},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":255575},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":259797},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":259311},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":265391},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":264784},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":268082},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":278235},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":280897},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":282905},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":286015},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":292946},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":287781},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":282737}],"latest":282737,"yoy":-0.05938389211926265,"fiveYr":32.70486301787784,"sinceStart":266.86692271760006,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1165}],"latest":1165,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":66231,"population":237552,"povertyRate":16.841315347215357,"medianHomeValue":248700,"medianGrossRent":1037,"medianPropertyTax":795},"hud":{"county":"Tuscaloosa County","year":"2027","perUnit":1165,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Alabama","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":33406,"ratePer100k":321.6390710113135},"propertyCrime":{"total":140403,"ratePer100k":1351.825734514801},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":20.2,"ratioVerdict":"Favors renting — price is high relative to rent","priceCagr":5.8231616103214145,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":282737,"monthlyRent":1165,"grossRent":1165,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"AL","down":56547.4,"loan":226189.6,"mortgagePI":1467.0614402352608,"monthlyTax":75.39653333333334,"taxRatePct":0.32,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.32% ($795 tax ÷ $248,700 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":169.6422,"insuranceRatePct":0.72,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (AL avg 0.72%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":true,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":58.25,"egi":1106.75,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":116.5,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":58.25,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":58.25,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":478.0387333333333,"noi":628.7112666666667,"totalExpenses":1945.100173568594,"cashFlow":-838.3501735685941,"annualCf":-10060.202082823129,"cocReturn":-17.79074207270914,"capRate":2.668393312513042},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-925.7251735685941,"delta":-87,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-873.3001735685941,"delta":-35,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-880.7607235685941,"delta":-42,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-1070.5756599697038,"delta":-232,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1990-04-01) (home values −4.7% over 9 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2010-07-01 → 2011-04-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-879.188056235786,"delta":-41,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-1070.5756599697038,"baselineCashFlow":-838.3501735685941,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"verified","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":5.8231616103214145,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":107121.22128798942,"totalCashOutlay":230058.94176542625,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (AL avg 0.72%/yr)","homeValueAfter":420191.9938123014,"equityBuilt":214840.17108038373,"netCostOfBuying":71766.17068504251,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":35355.05060294691},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":4.268952605275476,"price":282737,"medianIncome":66231,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.32,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.32% ($795 tax ÷ $248,700 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"verified","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":282737,"secondary":248700,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.14,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1165,"secondary":1037,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.12,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.14,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":248700,"high":282737}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.12,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1037,"high":1165}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 5.8%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.14,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":248700,"high":282737}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.12,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1037,"high":1165}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Tuscaloosa County, AL is appreciation-driven for owning: at a 20.2x price-to-rent ratio, the math favors renting — monthly investor cash flow is typically thin or negative unless you buy below median or add units.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Tuscaloosa County, AL a good rental market?","a":"Tough for cash flow. At 20.2x, Tuscaloosa County is appreciation-driven — most investors here bank on equity growth, not monthly rent spread."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Tuscaloosa County?","a":"The typical home value in Tuscaloosa County is about $282,737 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA metro HPI), down 0.1% year-over-year, and up 32.7% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Tuscaloosa County?","a":"The typical rent in Tuscaloosa County is about $1,165/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Tuscaloosa County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Tuscaloosa County — roughly $35,355 ahead of renting, with about $214,840 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Tuscaloosa County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Tuscaloosa County's median home value is 4.3x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Tuscaloosa County?","a":"Tuscaloosa County's effective property tax rate is about 0.32% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.32% ($795 tax ÷ $248,700 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $282,737 median home is roughly $75/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Tuscaloosa County, AL was $282,737 as of April 2026, down 0.1% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Tuscaloosa County, AL was $1,165/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Tuscaloosa County, AL has a price-to-rent ratio of 20.2 — a high reading that favors renting over buying at the median. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=tuscaloosa-al","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=tuscaloosa-al"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T10:27:42.751Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA metro HPI (quarterly, Tuscaloosa, AL HUD Metro FMR Area) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Tuscaloosa, AL HUD Metro FMR Area","acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":282737,"countyFmr":1165,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Tuscaloosa, AL HUD Metro FMR Area"},"links":{"stateDir":"AL","stateName":"Alabama","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}