{"area":{"county":"Tunica County","state":"MS","stateName":"Mississippi","slug":"tunica-ms","metro":"Tunica County, MS HUD Metro FMR Area"},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":150137},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":155530},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":162455},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":169895},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":174064},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":175900},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":178948},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":178599},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":177907},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":180161},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":180212},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":180738},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":180269},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":180687},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":180950},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":182122},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":182271},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":180098},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":183003},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":177553},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":180944}],"latest":180944,"yoy":-0.728036824289108,"fiveYr":20.51925907670994,"sinceStart":216.40204238651464,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1156}],"latest":1156,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":39364,"population":9475,"povertyRate":31.103425915919164,"medianHomeValue":175900,"medianGrossRent":977,"medianPropertyTax":940},"hud":{"county":"Tunica County","year":"2027","perUnit":1156,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Mississippi","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":9790,"ratePer100k":165.6985403634197},"propertyCrime":{"total":57848,"ratePer100k":979.0938879410729},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":13,"ratioVerdict":"Favorable for buying — price-to-rent favors owning (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":3.8038616363731848,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":180944,"monthlyRent":1156,"grossRent":1156,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"MS","down":36188.8,"loan":144755.2,"mortgagePI":938.8794718835137,"monthlyTax":80.52008,"taxRatePct":0.534,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.53% ($940 tax ÷ $175,900 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":111.58213333333333,"insuranceRatePct":0.74,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (MS avg 0.74%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":true,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":57.800000000000004,"egi":1098.2,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":115.60000000000001,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":57.800000000000004,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":57.800000000000004,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":423.3022133333334,"noi":674.8977866666667,"totalExpenses":1362.1816852168472,"cashFlow":-263.98168521684704,"annualCf":-3167.7802226021645,"cocReturn":-8.753482355320331,"capRate":4.475845255990804},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-350.681685216847,"delta":-87,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-298.6616852168471,"delta":-35,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-291.8772185501804,"delta":-28,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-412.5996885604577,"delta":-149,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −10.0% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2008-01-01 → 2009-01-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-351.07831150638515,"delta":-87,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-412.5996885604577,"baselineCashFlow":-263.98168521684704,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":3.8038616363731848,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":106293.6753724599,"totalCashOutlay":149008.6450678894,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (MS avg 0.74%/yr)","homeValueAfter":234984.25176406966,"equityBuilt":103564.6631980023,"netCostOfBuying":81632.7818698871,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":24660.8935025728},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":4.596687328523524,"price":180944,"medianIncome":39364,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.534,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.53% ($940 tax ÷ $175,900 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":180944,"secondary":175900,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.03,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1156,"secondary":977,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.18,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.03,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":175900,"high":180944}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.18,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":977,"high":1156}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 3.8%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.03,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":175900,"high":180944}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.18,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":977,"high":1156}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Tunica County, MS leans favorable for buying: a price-to-rent ratio of 13.0 favors owning at the median, and modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — not a claim of strong rental yield.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Tunica County, MS a good rental market?","a":"For owning at the median, yes — Tunica County's price-to-rent ratio of 13.0 is in the favorable range, but modeled investor cash flow is negative, so it is not a claim of strong rental yield."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Tunica County?","a":"The typical home value in Tunica County is about $180,944 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA metro HPI), down 0.7% year-over-year, and up 20.5% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Tunica County?","a":"The typical rent in Tunica County is about $1,156/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Tunica County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Tunica County — roughly $24,661 ahead of renting, with about $103,565 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Tunica County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Tunica County's median home value is 4.6x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Tunica County?","a":"Tunica County's effective property tax rate is about 0.53% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.53% ($940 tax ÷ $175,900 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $180,944 median home is roughly $81/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Tunica County, MS was $180,944 as of April 2026, down 0.7% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Tunica County, MS was $1,156/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Tunica County, MS has a price-to-rent ratio of 13.0 — a reading that favors owning (owner-occupant math — not automatically strong investor cash flow). (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=tunica-ms","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=tunica-ms"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T10:53:28.897Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA metro HPI (quarterly, Tunica County, MS HUD Metro FMR Area) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Tunica County, MS HUD Metro FMR Area","acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":180944,"countyFmr":1156,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Tunica County, MS HUD Metro FMR Area"},"links":{"stateDir":"MS","stateName":"Mississippi","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}