{"area":{"county":"Todd County","state":"SD","stateName":"South Dakota","slug":"todd-sd","metro":null},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":44973},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":47482},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":49144},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":51209},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":53209},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":53900},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":53659},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":55298},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":55802},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":56441},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":57143},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":57331},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":58118},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":58386},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":59280},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":59365},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":60164},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":60131},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":60558},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":61208},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":60836}],"latest":60836,"yoy":1.116947011501895,"fiveYr":35.272274475796586,"sinceStart":397.351209941138,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1014}],"latest":1014,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":42075,"population":9244,"povertyRate":48.42636253975216,"medianHomeValue":53900,"medianGrossRent":532,"medianPropertyTax":975},"hud":{"county":"Todd County","year":"2027","perUnit":1014,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"South Dakota","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":4636,"ratePer100k":247.8895169897358},"propertyCrime":{"total":20162,"ratePer100k":1078.0734343285274},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":5,"ratioVerdict":"Favorable for buying — price-to-rent favors owning (modeled investor cash flow is positive at standard assumptions)","priceCagr":6.229552323251597,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":60836,"monthlyRent":1014,"grossRent":1014,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"SD","down":12167.2,"loan":48668.8,"mortgagePI":315.6649104225918,"monthlyTax":91.71027,"taxRatePct":1.809,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 1.81% ($975 tax ÷ $53,900 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":34.473733333333335,"insuranceRatePct":0.68,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (SD avg 0.68%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":50.7,"egi":963.3,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":101.4,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":50.7,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":50.7,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":328.9840033333333,"noi":634.3159966666667,"totalExpenses":644.6489137559252,"cashFlow":318.6510862440749,"annualCf":3823.813034928899,"cocReturn":31.427222655408794,"capRate":12.51198625813663},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":242.60108624407496,"delta":-76,"survives":true},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":288.23108624407485,"delta":-30,"survives":true},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":310.0326529107415,"delta":-9,"survives":true},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":268.68355567433025,"delta":-50,"survives":true},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −3.2% over 9 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2010-01-01 → 2010-10-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":294.57931590914666,"delta":-24,"survives":true}],"survived":5,"total":5,"score":100,"worstCashFlow":242.60108624407496,"baselineCashFlow":318.6510862440749,"framing":"scored","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":6.229552323251597,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":93236.83981632728,"totalCashOutlay":52927.3759339596,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (SD avg 0.68%/yr)","homeValueAfter":92870.56978115816,"equityBuilt":48685.39597044732,"netCostOfBuying":16409.179963512273,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":76827.659852815},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":1.4458942364824718,"price":60836,"medianIncome":42075,"label":"Affordable (≤3x income — historical rule of thumb)"},"countyTaxRatePct":1.809,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 1.81% ($975 tax ÷ $53,900 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":60836,"secondary":53900,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.13,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1014,"secondary":532,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.91,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":true}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.13,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":53900,"high":60836}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.91,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":532,"high":1014}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 6.2%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.13,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":53900,"high":60836}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.91,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":532,"high":1014}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Todd County, SD leans favorable for buying: a price-to-rent ratio of 5.0 favors owning at the median, and modeled investor cash flow is positive (319/mo at standard assumptions).","faqs":[{"q":"Is Todd County, SD a good rental market?","a":"For owning at the median, yes — Todd County's price-to-rent ratio of 5.0 is in the favorable range, and modeled investor cash flow is positive (about $319/mo at 20% down)."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Todd County?","a":"The typical home value in Todd County is about $60,836 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA state HPI), up 1.1% year-over-year, and up 35.3% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Todd County?","a":"The typical rent in Todd County is about $1,014/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Todd County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Todd County — roughly $76,828 ahead of renting, with about $48,685 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Todd County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Todd County's median home value is 1.4x the local median household income — Affordable (≤3x income — historical rule of thumb)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Todd County?","a":"Todd County's effective property tax rate is about 1.81% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 1.81% ($975 tax ÷ $53,900 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $60,836 median home is roughly $92/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Todd County, SD was $60,836 as of April 2026, up 1.1% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Todd County, SD was $1,014/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Todd County, SD has a price-to-rent ratio of 5.0 — a reading that favors owning (owner-occupant math — not automatically strong investor cash flow). (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=todd-sd","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=todd-sd"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-13T14:20:06.915Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA state HPI (quarterly) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null,"acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":60836,"countyFmr":1014,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null},"links":{"stateDir":"SD","stateName":"South Dakota","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}