{"area":{"county":"Thomas County","state":"GA","stateName":"Georgia","slug":"thomas-ga","metro":null},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":160646},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":170030},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":178573},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":187421},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":196027},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":196700},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":198429},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":198865},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":204608},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":209342},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":211212},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":213445},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":216587},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":218221},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":221374},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":222325},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":219487},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":220486},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":221279},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":223333},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":223649}],"latest":223649,"yoy":1.8962398684204531,"fiveYr":39.21853018438056,"sinceStart":325.657569182749,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1233}],"latest":1233,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":60736,"population":45777,"povertyRate":17.947642592265584,"medianHomeValue":196700,"medianGrossRent":1018,"medianPropertyTax":1539},"hud":{"county":"Thomas County","year":"2027","perUnit":1233,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Georgia","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":57469,"ratePer100k":254.22578650784746},"propertyCrime":{"total":260362,"ratePer100k":1151.7641550532667},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":15.1,"ratioVerdict":"Borderline — at 15.1× the market leans renting (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":6.842328312572521,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":223649,"monthlyRent":1233,"grossRent":1233,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"GA","down":44729.8,"loan":178919.2,"mortgagePI":1160.466525595079,"monthlyTax":145.74459833333336,"taxRatePct":0.782,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.78% ($1,539 tax ÷ $196,700 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":123.00695,"insuranceRatePct":0.66,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (GA avg 0.66%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":61.650000000000006,"egi":1171.35,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":123.30000000000001,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":61.650000000000006,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":61.650000000000006,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":515.3515483333333,"noi":655.9984516666666,"totalExpenses":1675.8180739284123,"cashFlow":-504.4680739284124,"annualCf":-6053.616887140949,"cocReturn":-13.533744588933885,"capRate":3.5197928092680937},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-596.9430739284123,"delta":-92,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-541.4580739284124,"delta":-37,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-535.2198114284125,"delta":-31,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-688.1617461684154,"delta":-184,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −11.6% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2010-04-01 → 2011-04-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-611.3433077513305,"delta":-107,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-688.1617461684154,"baselineCashFlow":-504.4680739284124,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":6.842328312572521,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":113373.79042754589,"totalCashOutlay":190940.886627265,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (GA avg 0.66%/yr)","homeValueAfter":355443.3275401156,"equityBuilt":193007.10659212983,"netCostOfBuying":42663.58003513518,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":70710.2103924107},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":3.6823136195995785,"price":223649,"medianIncome":60736,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.782,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.78% ($1,539 tax ÷ $196,700 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":223649,"secondary":196700,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.14,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1233,"secondary":1018,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.21,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.14,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":196700,"high":223649}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.21,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1018,"high":1233}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (229d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (15d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 6.8%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":229,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":15,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.14,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":196700,"high":223649}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.21,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1018,"high":1233}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Thomas County, GA is a moderate market — a 15.1x price-to-rent ratio is borderline, leaning renting; individual deals decide the outcome.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Thomas County, GA a good rental market?","a":"Mixed. Thomas County's 15.1x price-to-rent ratio is moderate; rentals can cash flow, but only on well-priced properties."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Thomas County?","a":"The typical home value in Thomas County is about $223,649 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA state HPI), up 1.9% year-over-year, and up 39.2% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Thomas County?","a":"The typical rent in Thomas County is about $1,233/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Thomas County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Thomas County — roughly $70,710 ahead of renting, with about $193,007 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Thomas County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Thomas County's median home value is 3.7x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Thomas County?","a":"Thomas County's effective property tax rate is about 0.78% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.78% ($1,539 tax ÷ $196,700 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $223,649 median home is roughly $146/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Thomas County, GA was $223,649 as of April 2026, up 1.9% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Thomas County, GA was $1,233/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Thomas County, GA has a price-to-rent ratio of 15.1 — a moderate reading where individual deals decide the outcome. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=thomas-ga","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=thomas-ga"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-15T14:07:37.121Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA state HPI (quarterly) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null,"acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":223649,"countyFmr":1233,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null},"links":{"stateDir":"GA","stateName":"Georgia","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}