{"area":{"county":"Tazewell County","state":"IL","stateName":"Illinois","slug":"tazewell-il","metro":"Peoria, IL MSA"},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":148415},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":153501},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":155663},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":158512},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":167094},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":167500},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":171112},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":171476},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":176206},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":180936},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":185061},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":183744},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":190619},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":194082},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":194927},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":195125},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":206962},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":205770},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":205637},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":211659},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":214583}],"latest":214583,"yoy":3.6823184932499684,"fiveYr":44.583094700670415,"sinceStart":265.9952242879072,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1212}],"latest":1212,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":77982,"population":130290,"povertyRate":9.018110236220473,"medianHomeValue":167500,"medianGrossRent":909,"medianPropertyTax":3536},"hud":{"county":"Tazewell County","year":"2027","perUnit":1212,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Illinois","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":50443,"ratePer100k":198.29562389472684},"propertyCrime":{"total":304359,"ratePer100k":1196.4605156904856},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":14.8,"ratioVerdict":"Favorable for buying — price-to-rent favors owning (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":7.6534339613202995,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":214583,"monthlyRent":1212,"grossRent":1212,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"IL","down":42916.600000000006,"loan":171666.4,"mortgagePI":1113.4250028471793,"monthlyTax":377.48726083333344,"taxRatePct":2.111,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 2.11% ($3,536 tax ÷ $167,500 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":96.56235,"insuranceRatePct":0.54,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (IL avg 0.54%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":60.6,"egi":1151.4,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":121.2,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":60.6,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":60.6,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":716.4496108333335,"noi":434.9503891666666,"totalExpenses":1829.8746136805128,"cashFlow":-678.4746136805127,"annualCf":-8141.695364166152,"cocReturn":-18.970970123835883,"capRate":2.4323477022876925},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-769.3746136805127,"delta":-91,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-714.8346136805128,"delta":-36,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-702.6152011805127,"delta":-24,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-854.7219444098098,"delta":-176,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1979-04-01) (home values −17.5% over 9 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 1979-07-01 → 1980-04-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-837.101034203169,"delta":-159,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-854.7219444098098,"baselineCashFlow":-678.4746136805127,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":7.6534339613202995,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":111442.84995797699,"totalCashOutlay":204835.0673381845,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (IL avg 0.54%/yr)","homeValueAfter":359575.85860288097,"equityBuilt":203724.27151918432,"netCostOfBuying":44027.3958190002,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":67415.45413897678},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":2.7516991100510375,"price":214583,"medianIncome":77982,"label":"Affordable (≤3x income — historical rule of thumb)"},"countyTaxRatePct":2.111,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 2.11% ($3,536 tax ÷ $167,500 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":214583,"secondary":167500,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.28,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1212,"secondary":909,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.33,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.28,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":167500,"high":214583}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.33,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":909,"high":1212}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (228d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (14d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 7.7%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":228,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":14,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.28,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":167500,"high":214583}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.33,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":909,"high":1212}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Tazewell County, IL leans favorable for buying: a price-to-rent ratio of 14.8 favors owning at the median, and modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — not a claim of strong rental yield.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Tazewell County, IL a good rental market?","a":"For owning at the median, yes — Tazewell County's price-to-rent ratio of 14.8 is in the favorable range, but modeled investor cash flow is negative, so it is not a claim of strong rental yield."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Tazewell County?","a":"The typical home value in Tazewell County is about $214,583 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA metro HPI), up 3.7% year-over-year, and up 44.6% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Tazewell County?","a":"The typical rent in Tazewell County is about $1,212/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Tazewell County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Tazewell County — roughly $67,415 ahead of renting, with about $203,724 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Tazewell County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Tazewell County's median home value is 2.8x the local median household income — Affordable (≤3x income — historical rule of thumb)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Tazewell County?","a":"Tazewell County's effective property tax rate is about 2.11% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 2.11% ($3,536 tax ÷ $167,500 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $214,583 median home is roughly $377/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Tazewell County, IL was $214,583 as of April 2026, up 3.7% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Tazewell County, IL was $1,212/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Tazewell County, IL has a price-to-rent ratio of 14.8 — a reading that favors owning (owner-occupant math — not automatically strong investor cash flow). (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=tazewell-il","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=tazewell-il"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-15T11:26:08.489Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA metro HPI (quarterly, Peoria, IL MSA) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Peoria, IL MSA","acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":214583,"countyFmr":1212,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Peoria, IL MSA"},"links":{"stateDir":"IL","stateName":"Illinois","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}