{"area":{"county":"Taylor County","state":"WV","stateName":"West Virginia","slug":"taylor-wv","metro":null},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":132044},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":137480},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":140548},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":146053},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":150275},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":148800},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":148939},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":153103},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":153407},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":158725},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":167416},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":157934},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":170270},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":166652},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":173188},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":172413},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":174722},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":176663},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":173905},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":181024},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":184477}],"latest":184477,"yoy":5.583154954728083,"fiveYr":39.70873345248553,"sinceStart":245.15229756024547,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1020}],"latest":1020,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":57795,"population":16487,"povertyRate":13.864731276981793,"medianHomeValue":148800,"medianGrossRent":835,"medianPropertyTax":797},"hud":{"county":"Taylor County","year":"2027","perUnit":1020,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"West Virginia","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":7321,"ratePer100k":206.81036328679608},"propertyCrime":{"total":30696,"ratePer100k":867.1289320381767},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":15.1,"ratioVerdict":"Borderline — at 15.1× the market leans renting (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":6.9174734970212315,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":184477,"monthlyRent":1020,"grossRent":1020,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"WV","down":36895.4,"loan":147581.6,"mortgagePI":957.2114484849178,"monthlyTax":82.39972666666667,"taxRatePct":0.536,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.54% ($797 tax ÷ $148,800 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":79.94003333333333,"insuranceRatePct":0.52,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (WV avg 0.52%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":51,"egi":969,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":102,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":51,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":51,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":366.33976,"noi":602.6602399999999,"totalExpenses":1323.5512084849179,"cashFlow":-354.5512084849179,"annualCf":-4254.614501819015,"cocReturn":-11.5315581395486,"capRate":3.920230099145151},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-431.05120848491777,"delta":-76,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-385.1512084849178,"delta":-31,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-374.5362168182512,"delta":-20,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-506.0710345240195,"delta":-152,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −5.7% over 3 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2023-10-01 → 2024-01-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-397.8787876888173,"delta":-43,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-506.0710345240195,"baselineCashFlow":-354.5512084849179,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":6.9174734970212315,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":93788.53709334697,"totalCashOutlay":150264.82126123502,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (WV avg 0.52%/yr)","homeValueAfter":294634.12153057643,"equityBuilt":160648.51581885148,"netCostOfBuying":26511.705442383536,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":67276.83165096343},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":3.191919716238429,"price":184477,"medianIncome":57795,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.536,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.54% ($797 tax ÷ $148,800 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":184477,"secondary":148800,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.24,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1020,"secondary":835,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.22,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.24,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":148800,"high":184477}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.22,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":835,"high":1020}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (228d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (14d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 6.9%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":228,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":14,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.24,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":148800,"high":184477}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.22,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":835,"high":1020}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Taylor County, WV is a moderate market — a 15.1x price-to-rent ratio is borderline, leaning renting; individual deals decide the outcome.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Taylor County, WV a good rental market?","a":"Mixed. Taylor County's 15.1x price-to-rent ratio is moderate; rentals can cash flow, but only on well-priced properties."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Taylor County?","a":"The typical home value in Taylor County is about $184,477 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA state HPI), up 5.6% year-over-year, and up 39.7% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Taylor County?","a":"The typical rent in Taylor County is about $1,020/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Taylor County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Taylor County — roughly $67,277 ahead of renting, with about $160,649 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Taylor County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Taylor County's median home value is 3.2x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Taylor County?","a":"Taylor County's effective property tax rate is about 0.54% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.54% ($797 tax ÷ $148,800 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $184,477 median home is roughly $82/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Taylor County, WV was $184,477 as of April 2026, up 5.6% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Taylor County, WV was $1,020/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Taylor County, WV has a price-to-rent ratio of 15.1 — a moderate reading where individual deals decide the outcome. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=taylor-wv","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=taylor-wv"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-15T00:45:30.931Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA state HPI (quarterly) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null,"acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":184477,"countyFmr":1020,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null},"links":{"stateDir":"WV","stateName":"West Virginia","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}