{"area":{"county":"Taos County","state":"NM","stateName":"New Mexico","slug":"taos-nm","metro":null},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":325281},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":340316},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":351460},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":364651},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":380667},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":382800},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":385914},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":391342},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":394935},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":406601},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":406292},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":415036},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":418619},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":422436},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":430679},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":434806},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":441194},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":433974},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":433484},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":443294},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":435681}],"latest":435681,"yoy":-1.2495636840029556,"fiveYr":33.939885821797155,"sinceStart":308.5722323814883,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1292}],"latest":1292,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":58950,"population":34543,"povertyRate":15.45950042262963,"medianHomeValue":382800,"medianGrossRent":1034,"medianPropertyTax":1129},"hud":{"county":"Taos County","year":"2027","perUnit":1292,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"New Mexico","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":24645,"ratePer100k":578.4516039386816},"propertyCrime":{"total":84484,"ratePer100k":1982.9541613777874},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":28.1,"ratioVerdict":"Favors renting — price is high relative to rent","priceCagr":6.019428776713109,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":435681,"monthlyRent":1292,"grossRent":1292,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"NM","down":87136.20000000001,"loan":348544.8,"mortgagePI":2260.654938487494,"monthlyTax":107.1049125,"taxRatePct":0.295,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.29% ($1,129 tax ÷ $382,800 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":239.62455,"insuranceRatePct":0.66,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (NM avg 0.66%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":64.60000000000001,"egi":1227.4,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":129.20000000000002,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":64.60000000000001,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":64.60000000000001,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":605.1294625,"noi":622.2705375,"totalExpenses":2865.784400987494,"cashFlow":-1638.3844009874938,"annualCf":-19660.612811849925,"cocReturn":-22.56308263597669,"capRate":1.7139251998595304},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1735.2844009874939,"delta":-97,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1677.1444009874938,"delta":-39,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1698.290538487494,"delta":-60,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-1996.2301450560872,"delta":-358,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −7.3% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2010-01-01 → 2011-01-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-1708.8989482916647,"delta":-71,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-1996.2301450560872,"baselineCashFlow":-1638.3844009874938,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":6.019428776713109,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":118798.81365157283,"totalCashOutlay":360826.9625319079,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (NM avg 0.66%/yr)","homeValueAfter":655944.1157490383,"equityBuilt":339509.0984726834,"netCostOfBuying":108454.0640592245,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":10344.749592348322},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":7.390687022900764,"price":435681,"medianIncome":58950,"label":"Stretched (>5x — historically expensive vs local incomes)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.295,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.29% ($1,129 tax ÷ $382,800 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":435681,"secondary":382800,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.14,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1292,"secondary":1034,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.25,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.14,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":382800,"high":435681}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.25,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1034,"high":1292}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 6.0%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.14,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":382800,"high":435681}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.25,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1034,"high":1292}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Taos County, NM is appreciation-driven for owning: at a 28.1x price-to-rent ratio, the math favors renting — monthly investor cash flow is typically thin or negative unless you buy below median or add units.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Taos County, NM a good rental market?","a":"Tough for cash flow. At 28.1x, Taos County is appreciation-driven — most investors here bank on equity growth, not monthly rent spread."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Taos County?","a":"The typical home value in Taos County is about $435,681 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA state HPI), down 1.2% year-over-year, and up 33.9% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Taos County?","a":"The typical rent in Taos County is about $1,292/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Taos County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Taos County — roughly $10,345 ahead of renting, with about $339,509 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Taos County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Taos County's median home value is 7.4x the local median household income — Stretched (>5x — historically expensive vs local incomes)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Taos County?","a":"Taos County's effective property tax rate is about 0.29% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.29% ($1,129 tax ÷ $382,800 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $435,681 median home is roughly $107/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Taos County, NM was $435,681 as of April 2026, down 1.2% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Taos County, NM was $1,292/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Taos County, NM has a price-to-rent ratio of 28.1 — a high reading that favors renting over buying at the median. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=taos-nm","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=taos-nm"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T11:28:55.648Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA state HPI (quarterly) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null,"acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":435681,"countyFmr":1292,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null},"links":{"stateDir":"NM","stateName":"New Mexico","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}