{"area":{"county":"Talbot County","state":"GA","stateName":"Georgia","slug":"talbot-ga","metro":"Talbot County, GA HUD Metro FMR Area"},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":99227},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":105048},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":108705},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":109268},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":116115},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":117100},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":114398},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":119335},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":121961},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":126176},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":124043},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":130620},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":130757},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":132565},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":134617},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":131920},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":139361},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":140615},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":138767},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":143246},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":141357}],"latest":141357,"yoy":1.4322514907327013,"fiveYr":42.45820190069235,"sinceStart":251.2847912524851,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1002}],"latest":1002,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":41597,"population":5742,"povertyRate":25.232660228270415,"medianHomeValue":117100,"medianGrossRent":816,"medianPropertyTax":1356},"hud":{"county":"Talbot County","year":"2027","perUnit":1002,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Georgia","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":55184,"ratePer100k":244.11762520052645},"propertyCrime":{"total":251033,"ratePer100k":1110.4954299609262},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":11.8,"ratioVerdict":"Favorable for buying — price-to-rent favors owning (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":7.335083872913906,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":141357,"monthlyRent":1002,"grossRent":1002,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"GA","down":28271.4,"loan":113085.6,"mortgagePI":733.4710490927462,"monthlyTax":136.409505,"taxRatePct":1.158,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 1.16% ($1,356 tax ÷ $117,100 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":77.74634999999999,"insuranceRatePct":0.66,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (GA avg 0.66%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":50.1,"egi":951.9,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":100.2,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":50.1,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":50.1,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":414.555855,"noi":537.344145,"totalExpenses":1148.0269040927462,"cashFlow":-196.12690409274614,"annualCf":-2353.5228491129537,"cocReturn":-8.324748152242032,"capRate":4.561592096606465},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-271.2769040927461,"delta":-75,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-226.18690409274615,"delta":-30,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-215.56349159274623,"delta":-19,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-312.23020179061257,"delta":-116,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1985-10-01) (home values −7.9% over 9 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2010-07-01 → 2011-04-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-255.55972299184145,"delta":-59,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-312.23020179061257,"baselineCashFlow":-196.12690409274614,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":7.335083872913906,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":92133.44526228789,"totalCashOutlay":121151.25269445957,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (GA avg 0.66%/yr)","homeValueAfter":232011.34382924796,"equityBuilt":129343.78491083375,"netCostOfBuying":20078.867783625814,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":72054.57747866208},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":3.3982498737889753,"price":141357,"medianIncome":41597,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":1.158,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 1.16% ($1,356 tax ÷ $117,100 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":141357,"secondary":117100,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.21,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1002,"secondary":816,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.23,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.21,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":117100,"high":141357}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.23,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":816,"high":1002}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 7.3%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.21,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":117100,"high":141357}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.23,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":816,"high":1002}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Talbot County, GA leans favorable for buying: a price-to-rent ratio of 11.8 favors owning at the median, and modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — not a claim of strong rental yield.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Talbot County, GA a good rental market?","a":"For owning at the median, yes — Talbot County's price-to-rent ratio of 11.8 is in the favorable range, but modeled investor cash flow is negative, so it is not a claim of strong rental yield."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Talbot County?","a":"The typical home value in Talbot County is about $141,357 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA metro HPI), up 1.4% year-over-year, and up 42.5% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Talbot County?","a":"The typical rent in Talbot County is about $1,002/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Talbot County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Talbot County — roughly $72,055 ahead of renting, with about $129,344 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Talbot County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Talbot County's median home value is 3.4x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Talbot County?","a":"Talbot County's effective property tax rate is about 1.16% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 1.16% ($1,356 tax ÷ $117,100 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $141,357 median home is roughly $136/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Talbot County, GA was $141,357 as of April 2026, up 1.4% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Talbot County, GA was $1,002/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Talbot County, GA has a price-to-rent ratio of 11.8 — a reading that favors owning (owner-occupant math — not automatically strong investor cash flow). (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=talbot-ga","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=talbot-ga"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T09:58:32.952Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA metro HPI (quarterly, Talbot County, GA HUD Metro FMR Area) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Talbot County, GA HUD Metro FMR Area","acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":141357,"countyFmr":1002,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Talbot County, GA HUD Metro FMR Area"},"links":{"stateDir":"GA","stateName":"Georgia","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}