{"area":{"county":"Sutter County","state":"CA","stateName":"California","slug":"sutter-ca","metro":"Yuba City, CA MSA"},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":365245},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":393442},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":403649},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":420151},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":435307},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":433500},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":423258},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":404913},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":418816},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":436241},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":431988},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":432602},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":432661},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":438757},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":448597},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":436205},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":436985},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":448798},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":445632},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":447309},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":440741}],"latest":440741,"yoy":0.8595260706889253,"fiveYr":20.669961258881024,"sinceStart":429.8195631528965,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1600}],"latest":1600,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":79704,"population":98857,"povertyRate":14.430433984207628,"medianHomeValue":433500,"medianGrossRent":1439,"medianPropertyTax":3268},"hud":{"county":"Sutter County","year":"2027","perUnit":1600,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"California","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":297608,"ratePer100k":377.37568791544925},"propertyCrime":{"total":1224544,"ratePer100k":1552.757769894411},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":23,"ratioVerdict":"Favors renting — price is high relative to rent","priceCagr":3.829812328278015,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":440741,"monthlyRent":1600,"grossRent":1600,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"CA","down":88148.20000000001,"loan":352592.8,"mortgagePI":2286.9101894365754,"monthlyTax":276.93226166666665,"taxRatePct":0.754,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.75% ($3,268 tax ÷ $433,500 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":238.73470833333337,"insuranceRatePct":0.65,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (CA avg 0.65%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":80,"egi":1520,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":160,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":80,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":80,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":835.66697,"noi":684.33303,"totalExpenses":3122.577159436575,"cashFlow":-1602.5771594365754,"annualCf":-19230.925913238905,"cocReturn":-21.816583790978036,"capRate":1.8632249688592624},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1722.5771594365754,"delta":-120,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1650.5771594365754,"delta":-48,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1662.2608365199087,"delta":-60,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-1964.5789246880684,"delta":-362,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1986-10-01) (home values −27.2% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2007-10-01 → 2008-10-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-1929.0783063803076,"delta":-327,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-1964.5789246880684,"baselineCashFlow":-1602.5771594365754,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"verified","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":3.829812328278015,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":147119.27387191678,"totalCashOutlay":363364.74183413846,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (CA avg 0.65%/yr)","homeValueAfter":573373.9210584355,"equityBuilt":253263.82686245767,"netCostOfBuying":198249.1149716808,"buyingCheaper":false,"savings":51129.84109976402},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":5.529722473150658,"price":440741,"medianIncome":79704,"label":"Stretched (>5x — historically expensive vs local incomes)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.754,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.75% ($3,268 tax ÷ $433,500 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"verified","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":440741,"secondary":433500,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.02,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1600,"secondary":1439,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.11,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.02,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":433500,"high":440741}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.11,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1439,"high":1600}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 3.8%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.02,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":433500,"high":440741}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.11,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1439,"high":1600}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Sutter County, CA is appreciation-driven for owning: at a 23.0x price-to-rent ratio, the math favors renting — monthly investor cash flow is typically thin or negative unless you buy below median or add units.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Sutter County, CA a good rental market?","a":"Tough for cash flow. At 23.0x, Sutter County is appreciation-driven — most investors here bank on equity growth, not monthly rent spread."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Sutter County?","a":"The typical home value in Sutter County is about $440,741 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA metro HPI), up 0.9% year-over-year, and up 20.7% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Sutter County?","a":"The typical rent in Sutter County is about $1,600/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Sutter County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, renting is cheaper in Sutter County by about $51,130 — buying only pays off if prices appreciate faster than projected."},{"q":"Is Sutter County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Sutter County's median home value is 5.5x the local median household income — Stretched (>5x — historically expensive vs local incomes)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Sutter County?","a":"Sutter County's effective property tax rate is about 0.75% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.75% ($3,268 tax ÷ $433,500 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $440,741 median home is roughly $277/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Sutter County, CA was $440,741 as of April 2026, up 0.9% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Sutter County, CA was $1,600/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Sutter County, CA has a price-to-rent ratio of 23.0 — a high reading that favors renting over buying at the median. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=sutter-ca","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=sutter-ca"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-13T14:14:35.477Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA metro HPI (quarterly, Yuba City, CA MSA) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Yuba City, CA MSA","acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":440741,"countyFmr":1600,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Yuba City, CA MSA"},"links":{"stateDir":"CA","stateName":"California","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}