{"area":{"county":"Sussex County","state":"DE","stateName":"Delaware","slug":"sussex-de","metro":null},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":341148},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":350500},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":364205},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":377897},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":394392},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":382600},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":408339},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":396871},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":405267},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":413986},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":426667},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":440709},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":443296},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":446167},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":440952},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":450843},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":453444},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":461260},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":471340},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":459643},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":468456}],"latest":468456,"yoy":3.3106623971207028,"fiveYr":37.317527876464176,"sinceStart":247.61986034535215,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1498}],"latest":1498,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":81497,"population":255626,"povertyRate":10.87125323867553,"medianHomeValue":382600,"medianGrossRent":1238,"medianPropertyTax":1222},"hud":{"county":"Sussex County","year":"2027","perUnit":1498,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Delaware","period":"07-2024 to 06-2026","window":{"from":"07-2024","to":"06-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":7526,"ratePer100k":355.01607619967695},"propertyCrime":{"total":34031,"ratePer100k":1605.3085422736126},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"07-2024","to":"06-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":26.1,"ratioVerdict":"Favors renting — price is high relative to rent","priceCagr":6.548899026801691,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":468456,"monthlyRent":1498,"grossRent":1498,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"DE","down":93691.20000000001,"loan":374764.8,"mortgagePI":2430.7173594076803,"monthlyTax":124.53122,"taxRatePct":0.319,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.32% ($1,222 tax ÷ $382,600 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":171.7672,"insuranceRatePct":0.44,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (DE avg 0.44%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":74.9,"egi":1423.1,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":149.8,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":74.9,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":74.9,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":595.89842,"noi":827.2015799999999,"totalExpenses":3026.6157794076803,"cashFlow":-1603.5157794076804,"annualCf":-19242.189352892165,"cocReturn":-20.537883336847177,"capRate":2.1189650596854346},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1715.8657794076803,"delta":-112,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1648.4557794076802,"delta":-45,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1646.4575794076804,"delta":-43,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-1988.2812061382397,"delta":-385,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −8.9% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2009-04-01 → 2010-04-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-1702.9678335993171,"delta":-99,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-1988.2812061382397,"baselineCashFlow":-1603.5157794076804,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":6.548899026801691,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":137740.4201625821,"totalCashOutlay":379841.81738966855,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (DE avg 0.44%/yr)","homeValueAfter":730317.2710183862,"equityBuilt":390077.7782399269,"netCostOfBuying":83455.23914974165,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":54285.18101284045},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":5.748137968268771,"price":468456,"medianIncome":81497,"label":"Stretched (>5x — historically expensive vs local incomes)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.319,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.32% ($1,222 tax ÷ $382,600 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":468456,"secondary":382600,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.22,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1498,"secondary":1238,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.21,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.22,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":382600,"high":468456}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.21,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1238,"high":1498}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 6.5%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.22,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":382600,"high":468456}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.21,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1238,"high":1498}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Sussex County, DE is appreciation-driven for owning: at a 26.1x price-to-rent ratio, the math favors renting — monthly investor cash flow is typically thin or negative unless you buy below median or add units.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Sussex County, DE a good rental market?","a":"Tough for cash flow. At 26.1x, Sussex County is appreciation-driven — most investors here bank on equity growth, not monthly rent spread."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Sussex County?","a":"The typical home value in Sussex County is about $468,456 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA state HPI), up 3.3% year-over-year, and up 37.3% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Sussex County?","a":"The typical rent in Sussex County is about $1,498/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Sussex County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Sussex County — roughly $54,285 ahead of renting, with about $390,078 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Sussex County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Sussex County's median home value is 5.7x the local median household income — Stretched (>5x — historically expensive vs local incomes)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Sussex County?","a":"Sussex County's effective property tax rate is about 0.32% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.32% ($1,222 tax ÷ $382,600 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $468,456 median home is roughly $125/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Sussex County, DE was $468,456 as of April 2026, up 3.3% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Sussex County, DE was $1,498/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Sussex County, DE has a price-to-rent ratio of 26.1 — a high reading that favors renting over buying at the median. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=sussex-de","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=sussex-de"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T09:23:09.599Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA state HPI (quarterly) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null,"acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":468456,"countyFmr":1498,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null},"links":{"stateDir":"DE","stateName":"Delaware","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}