{"area":{"county":"Susquehanna County","state":"PA","stateName":"Pennsylvania","slug":"susquehanna-pa","metro":null},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":192325},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":198565},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":204080},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":211248},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":214992},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":216400},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":218994},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":221225},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":225722},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":231369},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":234332},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":237093},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":241981},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":244783},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":248925},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":252997},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":253931},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":256448},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":259285},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":262479},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":263915}],"latest":263915,"yoy":3.9317767425009156,"fiveYr":37.22344988950994,"sinceStart":278.5301415642346,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1060}],"latest":1060,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":68487,"population":38219,"povertyRate":11.405688306195813,"medianHomeValue":216400,"medianGrossRent":933,"medianPropertyTax":2365},"hud":{"county":"Susquehanna County","year":"2027","perUnit":1060,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Pennsylvania","period":"10-2024 to 09-2026","window":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":55584,"ratePer100k":212.4973554431918},"propertyCrime":{"total":327305,"ratePer100k":1251.285386502121},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":20.7,"ratioVerdict":"Favors renting — price is high relative to rent","priceCagr":6.534293423441873,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":263915,"monthlyRent":1060,"grossRent":1060,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"PA","down":52783,"loan":211132,"mortgagePI":1369.398133246405,"monthlyTax":240.3825791666667,"taxRatePct":1.093,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 1.09% ($2,365 tax ÷ $216,400 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":96.76883333333335,"insuranceRatePct":0.44,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (PA avg 0.44%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":53,"egi":1007,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":106,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":53,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":53,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":549.1514125000001,"noi":457.8485874999999,"totalExpenses":1918.549545746405,"cashFlow":-911.5495457464051,"annualCf":-10938.594548956862,"cocReturn":-20.72370753643571,"capRate":2.0818002197677274},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-991.0495457464051,"delta":-79,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-943.349545746405,"delta":-32,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-935.7417540797384,"delta":-24,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-1128.3156189647984,"delta":-217,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −5.0% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2008-01-01 → 2009-01-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-951.0487250876897,"delta":-39,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-1128.3156189647984,"baselineCashFlow":-911.5495457464051,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":6.534293423441873,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":97466.5189401449,"totalCashOutlay":232435.35053795905,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (PA avg 0.44%/yr)","homeValueAfter":411045.67542502825,"equityBuilt":219364.26727436483,"netCostOfBuying":65854.08326359422,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":31612.435676550682},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":3.853505044753019,"price":263915,"medianIncome":68487,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":1.093,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 1.09% ($2,365 tax ÷ $216,400 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":263915,"secondary":216400,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.22,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1060,"secondary":933,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.14,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.22,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":216400,"high":263915}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.14,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":933,"high":1060}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 6.5%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.22,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":216400,"high":263915}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.14,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":933,"high":1060}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Susquehanna County, PA is appreciation-driven for owning: at a 20.7x price-to-rent ratio, the math favors renting — monthly investor cash flow is typically thin or negative unless you buy below median or add units.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Susquehanna County, PA a good rental market?","a":"Tough for cash flow. At 20.7x, Susquehanna County is appreciation-driven — most investors here bank on equity growth, not monthly rent spread."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Susquehanna County?","a":"The typical home value in Susquehanna County is about $263,915 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA state HPI), up 3.9% year-over-year, and up 37.2% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Susquehanna County?","a":"The typical rent in Susquehanna County is about $1,060/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Susquehanna County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Susquehanna County — roughly $31,612 ahead of renting, with about $219,364 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Susquehanna County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Susquehanna County's median home value is 3.9x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Susquehanna County?","a":"Susquehanna County's effective property tax rate is about 1.09% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 1.09% ($2,365 tax ÷ $216,400 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $263,915 median home is roughly $240/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Susquehanna County, PA was $263,915 as of April 2026, up 3.9% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Susquehanna County, PA was $1,060/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Susquehanna County, PA has a price-to-rent ratio of 20.7 — a high reading that favors renting over buying at the median. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=susquehanna-pa","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=susquehanna-pa"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T10:18:06.385Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA state HPI (quarterly) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null,"acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":263915,"countyFmr":1060,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null},"links":{"stateDir":"PA","stateName":"Pennsylvania","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}