{"area":{"county":"Sully County","state":"SD","stateName":"South Dakota","slug":"sully-sd","metro":null},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":171380},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":180941},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":187276},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":195145},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":202766},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":205400},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":204482},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":210728},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":212649},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":215082},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":217758},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":218476},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":221473},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":222494},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":225901},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":226228},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":229272},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":229146},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":230773},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":233248},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":231831}],"latest":231831,"yoy":1.1161415262221293,"fiveYr":35.27307737192204,"sinceStart":397.33133111659333,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1064}],"latest":1064,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":72578,"population":1526,"povertyRate":6.319947333772219,"medianHomeValue":205400,"medianGrossRent":842,"medianPropertyTax":1715},"hud":{"county":"Sully County","year":"2027","perUnit":1064,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"South Dakota","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":4636,"ratePer100k":247.8895169897358},"propertyCrime":{"total":20162,"ratePer100k":1078.0734343285274},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":18.2,"ratioVerdict":"Borderline — at 18.2× the market leans renting (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":6.2296784433617525,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":231831,"monthlyRent":1064,"grossRent":1064,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"SD","down":46366.200000000004,"loan":185464.8,"mortgagePI":1202.9211626040478,"monthlyTax":161.31573749999998,"taxRatePct":0.835,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.83% ($1,715 tax ÷ $205,400 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":131.3709,"insuranceRatePct":0.68,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (SD avg 0.68%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":53.2,"egi":1010.8,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":106.4,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":53.2,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":53.2,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":505.4866374999999,"noi":505.31336250000004,"totalExpenses":1708.4078001040477,"cashFlow":-697.6078001040478,"annualCf":-8371.293601248573,"cocReturn":-18.05473297628137,"capRate":2.615595131798595},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-777.4078001040477,"delta":-80,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-729.5278001040477,"delta":-32,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-730.4505251040479,"delta":-33,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-888.0217421698392,"delta":-190,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −3.2% over 9 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2010-01-01 → 2010-10-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-722.8649159177182,"delta":-25,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-888.0217421698392,"baselineCashFlow":-697.6078001040478,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":6.2296784433617525,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":97834.31712482468,"totalCashOutlay":201693.39201813005,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (SD avg 0.68%/yr)","homeValueAfter":353909.79017373855,"equityBuilt":185530.98437271747,"netCostOfBuying":62528.60764541259,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":35305.70947941209},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":3.194232412025683,"price":231831,"medianIncome":72578,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.835,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.83% ($1,715 tax ÷ $205,400 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":231831,"secondary":205400,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.13,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1064,"secondary":842,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.26,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.13,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":205400,"high":231831}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.26,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":842,"high":1064}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 6.2%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.13,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":205400,"high":231831}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.26,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":842,"high":1064}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Sully County, SD is a moderate market — a 18.2x price-to-rent ratio is borderline, leaning renting; individual deals decide the outcome.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Sully County, SD a good rental market?","a":"Mixed. Sully County's 18.2x price-to-rent ratio is moderate; rentals can cash flow, but only on well-priced properties."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Sully County?","a":"The typical home value in Sully County is about $231,831 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA state HPI), up 1.1% year-over-year, and up 35.3% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Sully County?","a":"The typical rent in Sully County is about $1,064/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Sully County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Sully County — roughly $35,306 ahead of renting, with about $185,531 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Sully County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Sully County's median home value is 3.2x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Sully County?","a":"Sully County's effective property tax rate is about 0.83% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.83% ($1,715 tax ÷ $205,400 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $231,831 median home is roughly $161/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Sully County, SD was $231,831 as of April 2026, up 1.1% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Sully County, SD was $1,064/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Sully County, SD has a price-to-rent ratio of 18.2 — a moderate reading where individual deals decide the outcome. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=sully-sd","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=sully-sd"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-13T14:03:40.868Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA state HPI (quarterly) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null,"acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":["2020"],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":231831,"countyFmr":1064,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null},"links":{"stateDir":"SD","stateName":"South Dakota","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}