{"area":{"county":"Stone County","state":"MO","stateName":"Missouri","slug":"stone-mo","metro":null},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":216255},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":223876},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":231839},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":240679},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":247927},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":249000},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":251248},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":254088},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":260781},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":265891},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":269153},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":274241},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":277861},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":281255},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":283416},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":286219},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":287964},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":289664},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":296423},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":297577},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":298788}],"latest":298788,"yoy":3.7588031837313,"fiveYr":38.16466671290837,"sinceStart":309.33788171468495,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1032}],"latest":1032,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":63520,"population":32048,"povertyRate":13.916563873865325,"medianHomeValue":249000,"medianGrossRent":896,"medianPropertyTax":1168},"hud":{"county":"Stone County","year":"2027","perUnit":1032,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Missouri","period":"10-2024 to 09-2026","window":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":50057,"ratePer100k":399.1441886752674},"propertyCrime":{"total":193566,"ratePer100k":1543.455341413125},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":24.1,"ratioVerdict":"Favors renting — price is high relative to rent","priceCagr":6.680057999454347,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":298788,"monthlyRent":1032,"grossRent":1032,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"MO","down":59757.600000000006,"loan":239030.4,"mortgagePI":1550.3466246193923,"monthlyTax":116.77630999999998,"taxRatePct":0.469,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.47% ($1,168 tax ÷ $249,000 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":149.394,"insuranceRatePct":0.6,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (MO avg 0.6%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":51.6,"egi":980.4,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":103.2,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":51.6,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":51.6,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":472.57031,"noi":507.82968999999997,"totalExpenses":2022.9169346193924,"cashFlow":-1042.5169346193923,"annualCf":-12510.203215432706,"cocReturn":-20.934915752026026,"capRate":2.0395585766496644},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1119.9169346193921,"delta":-77,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1073.4769346193923,"delta":-31,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1079.8654346193923,"delta":-37,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-1287.9258787293413,"delta":-245,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −7.1% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2010-04-01 → 2011-04-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-1097.8161369141808,"delta":-55,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-1287.9258787293413,"baselineCashFlow":-1042.5169346193923,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":6.680057999454347,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":94891.93164738634,"totalCashOutlay":255025.1814814301,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (MO avg 0.6%/yr)","homeValueAfter":469835.5269625999,"equityBuilt":252825.86635778256,"netCostOfBuying":61956.915123647545,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":32935.0165237388},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":4.7038413098236775,"price":298788,"medianIncome":63520,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.469,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.47% ($1,168 tax ÷ $249,000 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":298788,"secondary":249000,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.2,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1032,"secondary":896,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.15,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.2,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":249000,"high":298788}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.15,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":896,"high":1032}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 6.7%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.2,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":249000,"high":298788}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.15,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":896,"high":1032}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Stone County, MO is appreciation-driven for owning: at a 24.1x price-to-rent ratio, the math favors renting — monthly investor cash flow is typically thin or negative unless you buy below median or add units.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Stone County, MO a good rental market?","a":"Tough for cash flow. At 24.1x, Stone County is appreciation-driven — most investors here bank on equity growth, not monthly rent spread."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Stone County?","a":"The typical home value in Stone County is about $298,788 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA state HPI), up 3.8% year-over-year, and up 38.2% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Stone County?","a":"The typical rent in Stone County is about $1,032/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Stone County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Stone County — roughly $32,935 ahead of renting, with about $252,826 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Stone County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Stone County's median home value is 4.7x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Stone County?","a":"Stone County's effective property tax rate is about 0.47% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.47% ($1,168 tax ÷ $249,000 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $298,788 median home is roughly $117/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Stone County, MO was $298,788 as of April 2026, up 3.8% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Stone County, MO was $1,032/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Stone County, MO has a price-to-rent ratio of 24.1 — a high reading that favors renting over buying at the median. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=stone-mo","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=stone-mo"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-13T23:52:30.811Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA state HPI (quarterly) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null,"acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":298788,"countyFmr":1032,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null},"links":{"stateDir":"MO","stateName":"Missouri","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}