{"area":{"county":"St. Martin Parish","state":"LA","stateName":"Louisiana","slug":"st-martin-la","metro":"Lafayette, LA HUD Metro FMR Area"},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":141559},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":147323},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":150199},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":152527},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":162506},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":164200},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":163283},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":156187},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":162904},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":160630},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":156560},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":162463},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":166871},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":161824},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":166847},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":165647},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":168047},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":174432},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":172847},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":169512},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":177399}],"latest":177399,"yoy":5.565109760959731,"fiveYr":25.31806525900861,"sinceStart":218.54731549649847,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1092}],"latest":1092,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":55960,"population":51353,"povertyRate":15.263137270269212,"medianHomeValue":164200,"medianGrossRent":870,"medianPropertyTax":725},"hud":{"county":"St. Martin Parish","year":"2027","perUnit":1092,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Louisiana","period":"10-2024 to 09-2026","window":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":30651,"ratePer100k":331.8508618854707},"propertyCrime":{"total":120135,"ratePer100k":1300.6721898995472},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":13.5,"ratioVerdict":"Favorable for buying — price-to-rent favors owning (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":4.617760750041255,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":177399,"monthlyRent":1092,"grossRent":1092,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"LA","down":35479.8,"loan":141919.2,"mortgagePI":920.4852298648391,"monthlyTax":65.341965,"taxRatePct":0.442,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.44% ($725 tax ÷ $164,200 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":130.0926,"insuranceRatePct":0.88,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (LA avg 0.88%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":true,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":54.6,"egi":1037.4,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":109.2,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":54.6,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":54.6,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":413.83456500000005,"noi":623.565435,"totalExpenses":1334.3197948648392,"cashFlow":-296.9197948648391,"annualCf":-3563.0375383780693,"cocReturn":-10.042439749880408,"capRate":4.218053777078788},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-378.81979486483897,"delta":-82,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-329.6797948648391,"delta":-33,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-329.4429448648391,"delta":-33,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-442.62611933624,"delta":-146,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1980-07-01) (home values −17.7% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 1986-10-01 → 1987-10-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-441.73404826748185,"delta":-145,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-442.62611933624,"baselineCashFlow":-296.9197948648391,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":4.617760750041255,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":100408.90441758322,"totalCashOutlay":147207.9002100943,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (LA avg 0.88%/yr)","homeValueAfter":243326.33125642958,"equityBuilt":114481.47543345811,"netCostOfBuying":68206.22477663618,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":32202.67964094704},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":3.1701036454610434,"price":177399,"medianIncome":55960,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.442,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.44% ($725 tax ÷ $164,200 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":177399,"secondary":164200,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.08,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1092,"secondary":870,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.26,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.08,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":164200,"high":177399}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.26,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":870,"high":1092}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 4.6%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.08,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":164200,"high":177399}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.26,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":870,"high":1092}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"St. Martin Parish, LA leans favorable for buying: a price-to-rent ratio of 13.5 favors owning at the median, and modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — not a claim of strong rental yield.","faqs":[{"q":"Is St. Martin Parish, LA a good rental market?","a":"For owning at the median, yes — St. Martin Parish's price-to-rent ratio of 13.5 is in the favorable range, but modeled investor cash flow is negative, so it is not a claim of strong rental yield."},{"q":"What is the median home value in St. Martin Parish?","a":"The typical home value in St. Martin Parish is about $177,399 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA metro HPI), up 5.6% year-over-year, and up 25.3% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in St. Martin Parish?","a":"The typical rent in St. Martin Parish is about $1,092/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in St. Martin Parish?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in St. Martin Parish — roughly $32,203 ahead of renting, with about $114,481 in equity built."},{"q":"Is St. Martin Parish affordable for homebuyers?","a":"St. Martin Parish's median home value is 3.2x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in St. Martin Parish?","a":"St. Martin Parish's effective property tax rate is about 0.44% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.44% ($725 tax ÷ $164,200 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $177,399 median home is roughly $65/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in St. Martin Parish, LA was $177,399 as of April 2026, up 5.6% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in St. Martin Parish, LA was $1,092/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","St. Martin Parish, LA has a price-to-rent ratio of 13.5 — a reading that favors owning (owner-occupant math — not automatically strong investor cash flow). (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=st-martin-la","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=st-martin-la"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T08:47:35.893Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA metro HPI (quarterly, Lafayette, LA HUD Metro FMR Area) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Lafayette, LA HUD Metro FMR Area","acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":177399,"countyFmr":1092,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Lafayette, LA HUD Metro FMR Area"},"links":{"stateDir":"LA","stateName":"Louisiana","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}