{"area":{"county":"St. Lucie County","state":"FL","stateName":"Florida","slug":"st-lucie-fl","metro":"Port St. Lucie, FL MSA"},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":253295},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":275809},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":292093},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":309360},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":332403},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":347300},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":340378},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":343324},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":354199},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":356958},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":356506},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":359305},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":358853},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":368051},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":370491},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":359812},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":369727},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":362602},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":368106},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":366944},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":367537}],"latest":367537,"yoy":-0.5923289345922802,"fiveYr":45.102351013640224,"sinceStart":751.5093946203924,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":2069}],"latest":2069,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":71457,"population":360500,"povertyRate":12.277698899507836,"medianHomeValue":347300,"medianGrossRent":1585,"medianPropertyTax":3241},"hud":{"county":"St. Lucie County","year":"2027","perUnit":2069,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Florida","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":95375,"ratePer100k":203.24971087928412},"propertyCrime":{"total":410246,"ratePer100k":874.2582530996885},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":14.8,"ratioVerdict":"Favorable for buying — price-to-rent favors owning (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":7.7306590886325965,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":367537,"monthlyRent":2069,"grossRent":2069,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"FL","down":73507.40000000001,"loan":294029.6,"mortgagePI":1907.070388947138,"monthlyTax":285.7600175,"taxRatePct":0.933,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.93% ($3,241 tax ÷ $347,300 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":321.594875,"insuranceRatePct":1.05,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (FL avg 1.05%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":true,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":103.45,"egi":1965.55,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":206.9,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":103.45,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":103.45,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":1021.1548925000001,"noi":944.3951074999999,"totalExpenses":2928.225281447138,"cashFlow":-962.6752814471382,"annualCf":-11552.103377365658,"cocReturn":-15.71556520481701,"capRate":3.0834286860914677},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1117.850281447138,"delta":-155,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1024.745281447138,"delta":-62,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1043.074000197138,"delta":-80,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-1264.5510833245175,"delta":-302,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1979-01-01) (home values −29.0% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2007-07-01 → 2008-07-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-1412.3331398890903,"delta":-450,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-1412.3331398890903,"baselineCashFlow":-962.6752814471382,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":7.7306590886325965,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":190243.6110256224,"totalCashOutlay":325097.59460103326,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (FL avg 1.05%/yr)","homeValueAfter":618979.5258239548,"equityBuilt":352037.4811979568,"netCostOfBuying":46567.513403076504,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":143676.0976225459},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":5.143470898582364,"price":367537,"medianIncome":71457,"label":"Stretched (>5x — historically expensive vs local incomes)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.933,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.93% ($3,241 tax ÷ $347,300 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":367537,"secondary":347300,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.06,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":2069,"secondary":1585,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.31,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.06,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":347300,"high":367537}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.31,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1585,"high":2069}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 7.7%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.06,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":347300,"high":367537}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.31,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1585,"high":2069}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"St. Lucie County, FL leans favorable for buying: a price-to-rent ratio of 14.8 favors owning at the median, and modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — not a claim of strong rental yield.","faqs":[{"q":"Is St. Lucie County, FL a good rental market?","a":"For owning at the median, yes — St. Lucie County's price-to-rent ratio of 14.8 is in the favorable range, but modeled investor cash flow is negative, so it is not a claim of strong rental yield."},{"q":"What is the median home value in St. Lucie County?","a":"The typical home value in St. Lucie County is about $367,537 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA metro HPI), down 0.6% year-over-year, and up 45.1% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in St. Lucie County?","a":"The typical rent in St. Lucie County is about $2,069/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in St. Lucie County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in St. Lucie County — roughly $143,676 ahead of renting, with about $352,037 in equity built."},{"q":"Is St. Lucie County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"St. Lucie County's median home value is 5.1x the local median household income — Stretched (>5x — historically expensive vs local incomes)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in St. Lucie County?","a":"St. Lucie County's effective property tax rate is about 0.93% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.93% ($3,241 tax ÷ $347,300 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $367,537 median home is roughly $286/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in St. Lucie County, FL was $367,537 as of April 2026, down 0.6% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in St. Lucie County, FL was $2,069/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","St. Lucie County, FL has a price-to-rent ratio of 14.8 — a reading that favors owning (owner-occupant math — not automatically strong investor cash flow). (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=st-lucie-fl","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=st-lucie-fl"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T11:34:03.355Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA metro HPI (quarterly, Port St. Lucie, FL MSA) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Port St. Lucie, FL MSA","acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":367537,"countyFmr":2069,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Port St. Lucie, FL MSA"},"links":{"stateDir":"FL","stateName":"Florida","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}