{"area":{"county":"Southeast Fairbanks Census Area","state":"AK","stateName":"Alaska","slug":"southeast-fairbanks-census-area-ak","metro":null},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":246957},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":257510},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":264961},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":268620},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":276387},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":282000},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":279771},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":285576},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":287663},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":289717},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":298066},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":296370},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":302881},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":309916},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":309509},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":314823},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":313160},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":312968},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":323696},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":335213},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":339163}],"latest":339163,"yoy":8.303423170264402,"fiveYr":37.33686431241066,"sinceStart":307.848819730877,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1327}],"latest":1327,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":73882,"population":7068,"povertyRate":12.699554149288078,"medianHomeValue":282000,"medianGrossRent":1351,"medianPropertyTax":3350},"hud":{"county":"Southeast Fairbanks Census Area","year":"2027","perUnit":1327,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Alaska","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":8111,"ratePer100k":547.9420590623578},"propertyCrime":{"total":20573,"ratePer100k":1389.8177759943146},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":21.3,"ratioVerdict":"Favors renting — price is high relative to rent","priceCagr":6.551900015850154,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":339163,"monthlyRent":1327,"grossRent":1327,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"AK","down":67832.6,"loan":271330.4,"mortgagePI":1759.843809810926,"monthlyTax":335.77137,"taxRatePct":1.188,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 1.19% ($3,350 tax ÷ $282,000 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":146.97063333333332,"insuranceRatePct":0.52,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (AK avg 0.52%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":66.35000000000001,"egi":1260.65,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":132.70000000000002,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":66.35000000000001,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":66.35000000000001,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":748.1420033333334,"noi":512.5079966666667,"totalExpenses":2507.9858131442593,"cashFlow":-1247.3358131442592,"annualCf":-14968.02975773111,"cocReturn":-22.06613008749644,"capRate":1.8133157095555825},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1346.8608131442593,"delta":-100,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1287.1458131442594,"delta":-40,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1284.0784714775925,"delta":-37,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-1525.9066851711236,"delta":-279,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −5.3% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2009-01-01 → 2010-01-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-1300.0305591744868,"delta":-53,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-1525.9066851711236,"baselineCashFlow":-1247.3358131442592,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":6.551900015850154,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":122017.047767521,"totalCashOutlay":294120.0971969441,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (AK avg 0.52%/yr)","homeValueAfter":528855.2947964035,"equityBuilt":282521.28031218133,"netCostOfBuying":79431.41688476279,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":42585.63088275821},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":4.5906039360060635,"price":339163,"medianIncome":73882,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":1.188,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 1.19% ($3,350 tax ÷ $282,000 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":339163,"secondary":282000,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.2,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1327,"secondary":1351,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":0.98,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.2,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":282000,"high":339163}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":0.98,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1327,"high":1351}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 6.6%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.2,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":282000,"high":339163}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":0.98,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1327,"high":1351}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Southeast Fairbanks Census Area, AK is appreciation-driven for owning: at a 21.3x price-to-rent ratio, the math favors renting — monthly investor cash flow is typically thin or negative unless you buy below median or add units.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Southeast Fairbanks Census Area, AK a good rental market?","a":"Tough for cash flow. At 21.3x, Southeast Fairbanks Census Area is appreciation-driven — most investors here bank on equity growth, not monthly rent spread."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Southeast Fairbanks Census Area?","a":"The typical home value in Southeast Fairbanks Census Area is about $339,163 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA state HPI), up 8.3% year-over-year, and up 37.3% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Southeast Fairbanks Census Area?","a":"The typical rent in Southeast Fairbanks Census Area is about $1,327/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Southeast Fairbanks Census Area?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Southeast Fairbanks Census Area — roughly $42,586 ahead of renting, with about $282,521 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Southeast Fairbanks Census Area affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Southeast Fairbanks Census Area's median home value is 4.6x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Southeast Fairbanks Census Area?","a":"Southeast Fairbanks Census Area's effective property tax rate is about 1.19% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 1.19% ($3,350 tax ÷ $282,000 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $339,163 median home is roughly $336/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Southeast Fairbanks Census Area, AK was $339,163 as of April 2026, up 8.3% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Southeast Fairbanks Census Area, AK was $1,327/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Southeast Fairbanks Census Area, AK has a price-to-rent ratio of 21.3 — a high reading that favors renting over buying at the median. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=southeast-fairbanks-census-area-ak","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=southeast-fairbanks-census-area-ak"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T11:38:16.591Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA state HPI (quarterly) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null,"acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":339163,"countyFmr":1327,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null},"links":{"stateDir":"AK","stateName":"Alaska","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}