{"area":{"county":"Southampton County","state":"VA","stateName":"Virginia","slug":"southampton-va","metro":null},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":189551},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":196266},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":202040},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":210408},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":215355},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":216200},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":218969},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":222354},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":225974},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":231361},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":234722},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":236641},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":242607},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":245515},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":248490},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":253135},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":252423},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":255060},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":257799},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":259319},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":260242}],"latest":260242,"yoy":3.097578271393653,"fiveYr":37.293920897278305,"sinceStart":331.34986408539413,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1032}],"latest":1032,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":70795,"population":17964,"povertyRate":8.716323296354993,"medianHomeValue":216200,"medianGrossRent":930,"medianPropertyTax":1418},"hud":{"county":"Southampton County","year":"2027","perUnit":1032,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Virginia","period":"11-2023 to 10-2025","window":{"from":"11-2023","to":"10-2025","fellBack":true},"violentCrime":{"total":38972,"ratePer100k":219.43429285255235},"propertyCrime":{"total":268501,"ratePer100k":1511.8117383045048},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2023","to":"10-2025","fellBack":true},"priceToRentRatio":21,"ratioVerdict":"Favors renting — price is high relative to rent","priceCagr":6.545234796814503,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":260242,"monthlyRent":1032,"grossRent":1032,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"VA","down":52048.4,"loan":208193.6,"mortgagePI":1350.3397267768446,"monthlyTax":142.26562666666666,"taxRatePct":0.656,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.66% ($1,418 tax ÷ $216,200 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":121.44626666666669,"insuranceRatePct":0.56,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (VA avg 0.56%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":51.6,"egi":980.4,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":103.2,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":51.6,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":51.6,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":470.1118933333334,"noi":510.2881066666666,"totalExpenses":1820.451620110178,"cashFlow":-840.051620110178,"annualCf":-10080.619441322135,"cocReturn":-19.367779684528504,"capRate":2.3529857901491686},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-917.4516201101779,"delta":-77,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-871.011620110178,"delta":-31,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-870.4131867768447,"delta":-30,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-1053.8008819046993,"delta":-214,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −11.4% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2007-10-01 → 2008-10-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-928.2848231859374,"delta":-88,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-1053.8008819046993,"baselineCashFlow":-840.051620110178,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":6.545234796814503,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":94891.93164738634,"totalCashOutlay":217672.16978187807,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (VA avg 0.56%/yr)","homeValueAfter":405616.49085506296,"equityBuilt":216602.7818201657,"netCostOfBuying":53117.78796171237,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":41774.143685673975},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":3.6759940673776397,"price":260242,"medianIncome":70795,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.656,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.66% ($1,418 tax ÷ $216,200 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":260242,"secondary":216200,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.2,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1032,"secondary":930,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.11,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.2,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":216200,"high":260242}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.11,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":930,"high":1032}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 6.5%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.2,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":216200,"high":260242}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.11,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":930,"high":1032}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Southampton County, VA is appreciation-driven for owning: at a 21.0x price-to-rent ratio, the math favors renting — monthly investor cash flow is typically thin or negative unless you buy below median or add units.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Southampton County, VA a good rental market?","a":"Tough for cash flow. At 21.0x, Southampton County is appreciation-driven — most investors here bank on equity growth, not monthly rent spread."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Southampton County?","a":"The typical home value in Southampton County is about $260,242 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA state HPI), up 3.1% year-over-year, and up 37.3% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Southampton County?","a":"The typical rent in Southampton County is about $1,032/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Southampton County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Southampton County — roughly $41,774 ahead of renting, with about $216,603 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Southampton County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Southampton County's median home value is 3.7x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Southampton County?","a":"Southampton County's effective property tax rate is about 0.66% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.66% ($1,418 tax ÷ $216,200 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $260,242 median home is roughly $142/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Southampton County, VA was $260,242 as of April 2026, up 3.1% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Southampton County, VA was $1,032/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Southampton County, VA has a price-to-rent ratio of 21.0 — a high reading that favors renting over buying at the median. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=southampton-va","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=southampton-va"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T10:31:12.585Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA state HPI (quarterly) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null,"acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":260242,"countyFmr":1032,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null},"links":{"stateDir":"VA","stateName":"Virginia","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}