{"area":{"county":"South Central Connecticut Planning Region","state":"CT","stateName":"Connecticut","slug":"south-central-connecticut-planning-region-ct","metro":"New Haven, CT MSA"},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":296385},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":313436},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":319914},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":325711},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":345798},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":353100},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":356306},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":353951},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":375543},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":380070},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":384637},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":379769},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":411778},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":414971},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":416397},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":424026},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":433056},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":441169},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":441169},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":447568},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":459123}],"latest":459123,"yoy":6.019313899357127,"fiveYr":54.90763702616529,"sinceStart":885.538573820461,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":2091}],"latest":2091,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":88197,"population":570598,"povertyRate":11.406611753622425,"medianHomeValue":353100,"medianGrossRent":1525,"medianPropertyTax":6759},"hud":{"county":"South Central Connecticut Planning Region","year":"2027","perUnit":2091,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Connecticut","period":"10-2024 to 09-2026","window":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":7652,"ratePer100k":103.72791511770652},"propertyCrime":{"total":82299,"ratePer100k":1115.6173139404245},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":18.3,"ratioVerdict":"Borderline — at 18.3× the market leans renting (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":9.149002342141422,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":459123,"monthlyRent":2091,"grossRent":2091,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"CT","down":91824.6,"loan":367298.4,"mortgagePI":2382.290431125511,"monthlyTax":732.3011849999999,"taxRatePct":1.914,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 1.91% ($6,759 tax ÷ $353,100 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":198.95329999999998,"insuranceRatePct":0.52,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (CT avg 0.52%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":104.55000000000001,"egi":1986.45,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":209.10000000000002,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":104.55000000000001,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":104.55000000000001,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":1349.4544849999997,"noi":636.9955150000003,"totalExpenses":3731.744916125511,"cashFlow":-1745.2949161255108,"annualCf":-20943.53899350613,"cocReturn":-22.80820062761627,"capRate":1.6649016015316165},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1902.119916125511,"delta":-157,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1808.0249161255108,"delta":-63,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1795.033241125511,"delta":-50,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-2122.394701413381,"delta":-377,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1977-10-01) (home values −8.0% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 1990-01-01 → 1991-01-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-1870.314555533109,"delta":-125,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-2122.394701413381,"baselineCashFlow":-1745.2949161255108,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":9.149002342141422,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":192266.50104136128,"totalCashOutlay":432396.15095249313,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (CT avg 0.52%/yr)","homeValueAfter":847358.992650364,"equityBuilt":513898.05577918544,"netCostOfBuying":10322.69517330773,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":181943.80586805355},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":5.205653253512025,"price":459123,"medianIncome":88197,"label":"Stretched (>5x — historically expensive vs local incomes)"},"countyTaxRatePct":1.914,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 1.91% ($6,759 tax ÷ $353,100 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":459123,"secondary":353100,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.3,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":2091,"secondary":1525,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.37,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":true}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.3,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":353100,"high":459123}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.37,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":1525,"high":2091}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 9.1%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.3,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":353100,"high":459123}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.37,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":1525,"high":2091}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"South Central Connecticut Planning Region, CT is a moderate market — a 18.3x price-to-rent ratio is borderline, leaning renting; individual deals decide the outcome.","faqs":[{"q":"Is South Central Connecticut Planning Region, CT a good rental market?","a":"Mixed. South Central Connecticut Planning Region's 18.3x price-to-rent ratio is moderate; rentals can cash flow, but only on well-priced properties."},{"q":"What is the median home value in South Central Connecticut Planning Region?","a":"The typical home value in South Central Connecticut Planning Region is about $459,123 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA metro HPI), up 6.0% year-over-year, and up 54.9% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in South Central Connecticut Planning Region?","a":"The typical rent in South Central Connecticut Planning Region is about $2,091/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in South Central Connecticut Planning Region?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in South Central Connecticut Planning Region — roughly $181,944 ahead of renting, with about $513,898 in equity built."},{"q":"Is South Central Connecticut Planning Region affordable for homebuyers?","a":"South Central Connecticut Planning Region's median home value is 5.2x the local median household income — Stretched (>5x — historically expensive vs local incomes)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in South Central Connecticut Planning Region?","a":"South Central Connecticut Planning Region's effective property tax rate is about 1.91% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 1.91% ($6,759 tax ÷ $353,100 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $459,123 median home is roughly $732/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in South Central Connecticut Planning Region, CT was $459,123 as of April 2026, up 6.0% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in South Central Connecticut Planning Region, CT was $2,091/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","South Central Connecticut Planning Region, CT has a price-to-rent ratio of 18.3 — a moderate reading where individual deals decide the outcome. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=south-central-connecticut-planning-region-ct","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=south-central-connecticut-planning-region-ct"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T11:49:19.703Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA metro HPI (quarterly, New Haven, CT MSA) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"New Haven, CT MSA","acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":["2019","2020","2021","2019","2020","2021"],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":459123,"countyFmr":2091,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"New Haven, CT MSA"},"links":{"stateDir":"CT","stateName":"Connecticut","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}