{"area":{"county":"Smith County","state":"TN","stateName":"Tennessee","slug":"smith-tn","metro":"Smith County, TN HUD Metro FMR Area"},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":195661},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":207515},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":221533},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":231534},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":248190},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":243800},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":241432},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":242860},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":243720},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":246000},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":250692},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":249312},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":254820},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":260594},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":261464},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":262625},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":262696},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":259911},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":260532},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":264289},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":262124}],"latest":262124,"yoy":-0.217742181076225,"fiveYr":33.96844542346201,"sinceStart":491.0749317879451,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1146}],"latest":1146,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":66293,"population":20389,"povertyRate":10.018332259822623,"medianHomeValue":243800,"medianGrossRent":922,"medianPropertyTax":1136},"hud":{"county":"Smith County","year":"2027","perUnit":1146,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Tennessee","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":69418,"ratePer100k":474.48584266246854},"propertyCrime":{"total":224746,"ratePer100k":1536.1836295344028},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":19.1,"ratioVerdict":"Borderline — at 19.1× the market leans renting (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":6.023950251317589,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":262124,"monthlyRent":1146,"grossRent":1146,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"TN","down":52424.8,"loan":209699.2,"mortgagePI":1360.1050197187758,"monthlyTax":101.79148666666667,"taxRatePct":0.466,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.47% ($1,136 tax ÷ $243,800 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":131.062,"insuranceRatePct":0.6,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (TN avg 0.6%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":57.300000000000004,"egi":1088.7,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":114.60000000000001,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":57.300000000000004,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":57.300000000000004,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":462.05348666666674,"noi":626.6465133333334,"totalExpenses":1822.1585063854425,"cashFlow":-733.4585063854424,"annualCf":-8801.50207662531,"cocReturn":-16.788813837392432,"capRate":2.868778959576384},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-819.4085063854425,"delta":-86,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-767.8385063854425,"delta":-34,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-766.2240063854424,"delta":-33,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-948.7535452286234,"delta":-215,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −5.8% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2008-01-01 → 2009-01-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-783.2558593174917,"delta":-50,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-948.7535452286234,"baselineCashFlow":-733.4585063854424,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":6.023950251317589,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":105374.17991076042,"totalCashOutlay":213572.68301349125,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (TN avg 0.6%/yr)","homeValueAfter":394761.37673650036,"equityBuilt":204380.77150343492,"netCostOfBuying":61616.71151005631,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":43757.46840070411},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":3.954022294963269,"price":262124,"medianIncome":66293,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.466,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.47% ($1,136 tax ÷ $243,800 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":262124,"secondary":243800,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.08,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1146,"secondary":922,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.24,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.08,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":243800,"high":262124}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.24,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":922,"high":1146}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (229d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (15d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 6.0%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":229,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":15,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.08,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":243800,"high":262124}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.24,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":922,"high":1146}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Smith County, TN is a moderate market — a 19.1x price-to-rent ratio is borderline, leaning renting; individual deals decide the outcome.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Smith County, TN a good rental market?","a":"Mixed. Smith County's 19.1x price-to-rent ratio is moderate; rentals can cash flow, but only on well-priced properties."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Smith County?","a":"The typical home value in Smith County is about $262,124 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA metro HPI), down 0.2% year-over-year, and up 34.0% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Smith County?","a":"The typical rent in Smith County is about $1,146/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Smith County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Smith County — roughly $43,757 ahead of renting, with about $204,381 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Smith County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Smith County's median home value is 4.0x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Smith County?","a":"Smith County's effective property tax rate is about 0.47% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.47% ($1,136 tax ÷ $243,800 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $262,124 median home is roughly $102/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Smith County, TN was $262,124 as of April 2026, down 0.2% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Smith County, TN was $1,146/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Smith County, TN has a price-to-rent ratio of 19.1 — a moderate reading where individual deals decide the outcome. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=smith-tn","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=smith-tn"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-15T12:07:47.589Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA metro HPI (quarterly, Smith County, TN HUD Metro FMR Area) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Smith County, TN HUD Metro FMR Area","acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":262124,"countyFmr":1146,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Smith County, TN HUD Metro FMR Area"},"links":{"stateDir":"TN","stateName":"Tennessee","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}