{"area":{"county":"Skagit County","state":"WA","stateName":"Washington","slug":"skagit-wa","metro":"Mount Vernon-Anacortes, WA MSA"},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":441000},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":472214},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":492250},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":521771},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":539602},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":545100},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":528857},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":511432},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":548446},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":542856},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":563915},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":555387},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":572496},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":572706},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":582888},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":591967},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":598108},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":584948},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":602070},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":608696},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":618760}],"latest":618760,"yoy":3.4528881071645925,"fiveYr":40.30839002267574,"sinceStart":870.3451628585318,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1668}],"latest":1668,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":89263,"population":131328,"povertyRate":11.614444829845453,"medianHomeValue":545100,"medianGrossRent":1536,"medianPropertyTax":4308},"hud":{"county":"Skagit County","year":"2027","perUnit":1668,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Washington","period":"10-2024 to 09-2026","window":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":42104,"ratePer100k":263.11645265228685},"propertyCrime":{"total":287985,"ratePer100k":1799.676791209121},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":30.9,"ratioVerdict":"Favors renting — price is high relative to rent","priceCagr":7.009110916826788,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":618760,"monthlyRent":1668,"grossRent":1668,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"WA","down":123752,"loan":495008,"mortgagePI":3210.6124658603926,"monthlyTax":407.35033333333337,"taxRatePct":0.79,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.79% ($4,308 tax ÷ $545,100 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":216.566,"insuranceRatePct":0.42,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (WA avg 0.42%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":83.4,"egi":1584.6,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":166.8,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":83.4,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":83.4,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":957.5163333333333,"noi":627.0836666666667,"totalExpenses":4168.128799193726,"cashFlow":-2583.5287991937257,"annualCf":-31002.34559032471,"cocReturn":-25.051995596293157,"capRate":1.2161426077962376},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-2708.628799193726,"delta":-125,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-2633.5687991937257,"delta":-50,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-2637.6702991937264,"delta":-54,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-3091.7461247137344,"delta":-508,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1985-07-01) (home values −11.2% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2009-01-01 → 2010-01-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-2724.1744575922075,"delta":-141,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-3091.7461247137344,"baselineCashFlow":-2583.5287991937257,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"verified","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":7.009110916826788,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":153371.84301147328,"totalCashOutlay":514494.7670571785,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (WA avg 0.42%/yr)","homeValueAfter":994185.7203459945,"equityBuilt":544780.4644594234,"netCostOfBuying":93466.30259775504,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":59905.540413718234},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":6.931875469119344,"price":618760,"medianIncome":89263,"label":"Stretched (>5x — historically expensive vs local incomes)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.79,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.79% ($4,308 tax ÷ $545,100 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"verified","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":618760,"secondary":545100,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.14,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1668,"secondary":1536,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.09,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.14,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":545100,"high":618760}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.09,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1536,"high":1668}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (228d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (14d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 7.0%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":228,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":14,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.14,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":545100,"high":618760}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.09,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1536,"high":1668}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Skagit County, WA is appreciation-driven for owning: at a 30.9x price-to-rent ratio, the math favors renting — monthly investor cash flow is typically thin or negative unless you buy below median or add units.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Skagit County, WA a good rental market?","a":"Tough for cash flow. At 30.9x, Skagit County is appreciation-driven — most investors here bank on equity growth, not monthly rent spread."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Skagit County?","a":"The typical home value in Skagit County is about $618,760 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA metro HPI), up 3.5% year-over-year, and up 40.3% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Skagit County?","a":"The typical rent in Skagit County is about $1,668/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Skagit County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Skagit County — roughly $59,906 ahead of renting, with about $544,780 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Skagit County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Skagit County's median home value is 6.9x the local median household income — Stretched (>5x — historically expensive vs local incomes)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Skagit County?","a":"Skagit County's effective property tax rate is about 0.79% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.79% ($4,308 tax ÷ $545,100 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $618,760 median home is roughly $407/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Skagit County, WA was $618,760 as of April 2026, up 3.5% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Skagit County, WA was $1,668/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Skagit County, WA has a price-to-rent ratio of 30.9 — a high reading that favors renting over buying at the median. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=skagit-wa","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=skagit-wa"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-15T11:16:42.147Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA metro HPI (quarterly, Mount Vernon-Anacortes, WA MSA) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Mount Vernon-Anacortes, WA MSA","acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":618760,"countyFmr":1668,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Mount Vernon-Anacortes, WA MSA"},"links":{"stateDir":"WA","stateName":"Washington","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}