{"area":{"county":"Sherman County","state":"KS","stateName":"Kansas","slug":"sherman-ks","metro":null},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":121005},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":124543},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":127565},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":132432},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":136229},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":136700},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":138197},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":138948},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":142912},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":146765},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":149013},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":152167},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":152942},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":154922},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":157349},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":159964},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":160555},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":162029},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":163713},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":164795},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":165909}],"latest":165909,"yoy":3.3346828189716917,"fiveYr":37.109210363208135,"sinceStart":315.5516593613024,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1021}],"latest":1021,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":61750,"population":5858,"povertyRate":10.194086704153818,"medianHomeValue":136700,"medianGrossRent":913,"medianPropertyTax":2171},"hud":{"county":"Sherman County","year":"2027","perUnit":1021,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Kansas","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":22763,"ratePer100k":382.28615957168097},"propertyCrime":{"total":91581,"ratePer100k":1538.0287650895802},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":13.5,"ratioVerdict":"Favorable for buying — price-to-rent favors owning (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":6.516546968701142,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":165909,"monthlyRent":1021,"grossRent":1021,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"KS","down":33181.8,"loan":132727.2,"mortgagePI":860.8660928282889,"monthlyTax":219.55291000000003,"taxRatePct":1.588,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 1.59% ($2,171 tax ÷ $136,700 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":107.84085,"insuranceRatePct":0.78,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (KS avg 0.78%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":true,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":51.050000000000004,"egi":969.95,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":102.10000000000001,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":51.050000000000004,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":51.050000000000004,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":531.5937600000001,"noi":438.35623999999996,"totalExpenses":1392.459852828289,"cashFlow":-422.5098528282889,"annualCf":-5070.118233939467,"cocReturn":-15.279816748758254,"capRate":3.17057837730322},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-499.08485282828894,"delta":-77,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-453.139852828289,"delta":-31,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-449.4700653282889,"delta":-27,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-558.778888091879,"delta":-136,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −5.1% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2010-04-01 → 2011-04-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-461.3507363343639,"delta":-39,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-558.778888091879,"baselineCashFlow":-422.5098528282889,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":6.516546968701142,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":93880.48663951691,"totalCashOutlay":149917.23933745053,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (KS avg 0.78%/yr)","homeValueAfter":258100.88848074077,"equityBuilt":137601.21720450255,"netCostOfBuying":45497.822132947986,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":48382.66450656892},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":2.6867854251012147,"price":165909,"medianIncome":61750,"label":"Affordable (≤3x income — historical rule of thumb)"},"countyTaxRatePct":1.588,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 1.59% ($2,171 tax ÷ $136,700 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":165909,"secondary":136700,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.21,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1021,"secondary":913,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.12,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.21,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":136700,"high":165909}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.12,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":913,"high":1021}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (229d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (15d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 6.5%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":229,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":15,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.21,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":136700,"high":165909}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.12,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":913,"high":1021}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Sherman County, KS leans favorable for buying: a price-to-rent ratio of 13.5 favors owning at the median, and modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — not a claim of strong rental yield.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Sherman County, KS a good rental market?","a":"For owning at the median, yes — Sherman County's price-to-rent ratio of 13.5 is in the favorable range, but modeled investor cash flow is negative, so it is not a claim of strong rental yield."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Sherman County?","a":"The typical home value in Sherman County is about $165,909 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA state HPI), up 3.3% year-over-year, and up 37.1% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Sherman County?","a":"The typical rent in Sherman County is about $1,021/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Sherman County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Sherman County — roughly $48,383 ahead of renting, with about $137,601 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Sherman County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Sherman County's median home value is 2.7x the local median household income — Affordable (≤3x income — historical rule of thumb)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Sherman County?","a":"Sherman County's effective property tax rate is about 1.59% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 1.59% ($2,171 tax ÷ $136,700 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $165,909 median home is roughly $220/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Sherman County, KS was $165,909 as of April 2026, up 3.3% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Sherman County, KS was $1,021/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Sherman County, KS has a price-to-rent ratio of 13.5 — a reading that favors owning (owner-occupant math — not automatically strong investor cash flow). (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=sherman-ks","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=sherman-ks"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-15T12:17:26.854Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA state HPI (quarterly) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null,"acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":165909,"countyFmr":1021,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null},"links":{"stateDir":"KS","stateName":"Kansas","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}