{"area":{"county":"Sherburne County","state":"MN","stateName":"Minnesota","slug":"sherburne-mn","metro":"Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI HUD Metro FMR Area"},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":334108},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":341139},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":349809},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":358769},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":366100},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":361400},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":360717},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":362673},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":371399},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":373131},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":374030},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":376699},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":379798},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":384226},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":388187},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":391997},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":393355},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":396426},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":399899},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":400433},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":402568}],"latest":402568,"yoy":2.34215911835365,"fiveYr":20.490380356052533,"sinceStart":329.96998728999114,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1734}],"latest":1734,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":105466,"population":100560,"povertyRate":5.0931979201508195,"medianHomeValue":361400,"medianGrossRent":1127,"medianPropertyTax":3560},"hud":{"county":"Sherburne County","year":"2027","perUnit":1734,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Minnesota","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":25291,"ratePer100k":216.88887821686487},"propertyCrime":{"total":156826,"ratePer100k":1344.8979959368176},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":19.3,"ratioVerdict":"Borderline — at 19.3× the market leans renting (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":3.7988858000398196,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":402568,"monthlyRent":1734,"grossRent":1734,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"MN","down":80513.6,"loan":322054.4,"mortgagePI":2088.838708314188,"monthlyTax":330.4412333333333,"taxRatePct":0.985,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.98% ($3,560 tax ÷ $361,400 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":181.15560000000002,"insuranceRatePct":0.54,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (MN avg 0.54%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":86.7,"egi":1647.3,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":173.4,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":86.7,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":86.7,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":858.3968333333333,"noi":788.9031666666666,"totalExpenses":2947.235541647521,"cashFlow":-1299.9355416475214,"annualCf":-15599.226499770257,"cocReturn":-19.37464788528926,"capRate":2.351612149997019},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1429.9855416475211,"delta":-130,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1351.9555416475214,"delta":-52,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1345.2244416475214,"delta":-45,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-1630.5839874099152,"delta":-331,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −12.9% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2008-01-01 → 2009-01-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-1467.7419932604244,"delta":-168,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-1630.5839874099152,"baselineCashFlow":-1299.9355416475214,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":3.7988858000398196,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":159440.51305868983,"totalCashOutlay":337826.66166313505,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (MN avg 0.54%/yr)","homeValueAfter":522622.48674881883,"equityBuilt":230237.43430240173,"netCostOfBuying":188102.82736073332,"buyingCheaper":false,"savings":28662.314302043495},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":3.817040562835416,"price":402568,"medianIncome":105466,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.985,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.98% ($3,560 tax ÷ $361,400 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":402568,"secondary":361400,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.11,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1734,"secondary":1127,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.54,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":true}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.11,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":361400,"high":402568}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.54,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":1127,"high":1734}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (228d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (14d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 3.8%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":228,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":14,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.11,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":361400,"high":402568}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.54,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":1127,"high":1734}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Sherburne County, MN is a moderate market — a 19.3x price-to-rent ratio is borderline, leaning renting; individual deals decide the outcome.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Sherburne County, MN a good rental market?","a":"Mixed. Sherburne County's 19.3x price-to-rent ratio is moderate; rentals can cash flow, but only on well-priced properties."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Sherburne County?","a":"The typical home value in Sherburne County is about $402,568 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA metro HPI), up 2.3% year-over-year, and up 20.5% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Sherburne County?","a":"The typical rent in Sherburne County is about $1,734/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Sherburne County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, renting is cheaper in Sherburne County by about $28,662 — buying only pays off if prices appreciate faster than projected."},{"q":"Is Sherburne County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Sherburne County's median home value is 3.8x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Sherburne County?","a":"Sherburne County's effective property tax rate is about 0.98% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.98% ($3,560 tax ÷ $361,400 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $402,568 median home is roughly $330/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Sherburne County, MN was $402,568 as of April 2026, up 2.3% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Sherburne County, MN was $1,734/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Sherburne County, MN has a price-to-rent ratio of 19.3 — a moderate reading where individual deals decide the outcome. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=sherburne-mn","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=sherburne-mn"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-15T11:40:19.799Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA metro HPI (quarterly, Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI HUD Metro FMR Area) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI HUD Metro FMR Area","acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":402568,"countyFmr":1734,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI HUD Metro FMR Area"},"links":{"stateDir":"MN","stateName":"Minnesota","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}