{"area":{"county":"Sevier County","state":"TN","stateName":"Tennessee","slug":"sevier-tn","metro":null},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":241808},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":256277},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":270194},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":284698},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":296570},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":299000},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":298001},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":302778},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":305418},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":310445},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":316702},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":319363},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":321849},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":326444},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":330857},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":328539},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":331856},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":331514},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":332184},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":335711},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":334775}],"latest":334775,"yoy":0.8795983800202498,"fiveYr":38.446618805002316,"sinceStart":379.40056134723335,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1213}],"latest":1213,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":62581,"population":99652,"povertyRate":13.470162124870644,"medianHomeValue":299000,"medianGrossRent":1072,"medianPropertyTax":824},"hud":{"county":"Sevier County","year":"2027","perUnit":1213,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Tennessee","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":67245,"ratePer100k":459.6329552830346},"propertyCrime":{"total":217854,"ratePer100k":1489.0754381772658},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":23,"ratioVerdict":"Favors renting — price is high relative to rent","priceCagr":6.723568774382449,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":334775,"monthlyRent":1213,"grossRent":1213,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"TN","down":66955,"loan":267820,"mortgagePI":1737.0754222289952,"monthlyTax":76.99825000000001,"taxRatePct":0.276,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.28% ($824 tax ÷ $299,000 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":167.38750000000002,"insuranceRatePct":0.6,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (TN avg 0.6%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":60.650000000000006,"egi":1152.35,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":121.30000000000001,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":60.650000000000006,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":60.650000000000006,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":486.98575000000005,"noi":665.3642499999999,"totalExpenses":2224.061172228995,"cashFlow":-1071.7111722289953,"annualCf":-12860.534066747943,"cocReturn":-19.20772767791493,"capRate":2.3849961914718834},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1162.6861722289952,"delta":-91,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1108.1011722289952,"delta":-36,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1113.5580472289953,"delta":-42,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-1346.6779689691864,"delta":-275,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −4.7% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2010-04-01 → 2011-04-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-1114.2051332810863,"delta":-42,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-1346.6779689691864,"baselineCashFlow":-1071.7111722289953,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"verified","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":6.723568774382449,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":111534.79950414694,"totalCashOutlay":274059.71077995567,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (TN avg 0.6%/yr)","homeValueAfter":527928.8482372526,"equityBuilt":284781.83721613477,"netCostOfBuying":56232.873563820904,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":55301.92594032604},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":5.349467090650517,"price":334775,"medianIncome":62581,"label":"Stretched (>5x — historically expensive vs local incomes)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.276,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.28% ($824 tax ÷ $299,000 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"verified","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":334775,"secondary":299000,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.12,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1213,"secondary":1072,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.13,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.12,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":299000,"high":334775}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.13,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1072,"high":1213}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (228d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (14d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 6.7%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":228,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":14,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.12,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":299000,"high":334775}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.13,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1072,"high":1213}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Sevier County, TN is appreciation-driven for owning: at a 23.0x price-to-rent ratio, the math favors renting — monthly investor cash flow is typically thin or negative unless you buy below median or add units.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Sevier County, TN a good rental market?","a":"Tough for cash flow. At 23.0x, Sevier County is appreciation-driven — most investors here bank on equity growth, not monthly rent spread."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Sevier County?","a":"The typical home value in Sevier County is about $334,775 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA state HPI), up 0.9% year-over-year, and up 38.4% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Sevier County?","a":"The typical rent in Sevier County is about $1,213/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Sevier County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Sevier County — roughly $55,302 ahead of renting, with about $284,782 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Sevier County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Sevier County's median home value is 5.3x the local median household income — Stretched (>5x — historically expensive vs local incomes)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Sevier County?","a":"Sevier County's effective property tax rate is about 0.28% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.28% ($824 tax ÷ $299,000 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $334,775 median home is roughly $77/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Sevier County, TN was $334,775 as of April 2026, up 0.9% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Sevier County, TN was $1,213/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Sevier County, TN has a price-to-rent ratio of 23.0 — a high reading that favors renting over buying at the median. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=sevier-tn","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=sevier-tn"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-15T05:09:31.000Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA state HPI (quarterly) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null,"acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":334775,"countyFmr":1213,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null},"links":{"stateDir":"TN","stateName":"Tennessee","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}