{"area":{"county":"Scott County","state":"VA","stateName":"Virginia","slug":"scott-va","metro":"Kingsport-Bristol, TN-VA MSA"},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":108739},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":117019},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":121277},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":126873},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":137892},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":143000},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":142783},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":145618},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":148680},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":153297},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":156602},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":155437},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":162463},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":161874},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":167009},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":168896},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":169202},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":169176},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":174018},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":171564},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":174280}],"latest":174280,"yoy":3.0011465585513175,"fiveYr":60.27368285527731,"sinceStart":385.39200668430584,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1091}],"latest":1091,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":46349,"population":21479,"povertyRate":20.197091927926188,"medianHomeValue":143000,"medianGrossRent":699,"medianPropertyTax":885},"hud":{"county":"Scott County","year":"2027","perUnit":1091,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Virginia","period":"10-2024 to 09-2026","window":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":35217,"ratePer100k":198.2915295953078},"propertyCrime":{"total":230747,"ratePer100k":1299.2354709239428},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":13.3,"ratioVerdict":"Favorable for buying — price-to-rent favors owning (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":9.895030247597724,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":174280,"monthlyRent":1091,"grossRent":1091,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"VA","down":34856,"loan":139424,"mortgagePI":904.301410159269,"monthlyTax":89.89943333333333,"taxRatePct":0.619,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.62% ($885 tax ÷ $143,000 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":81.33066666666669,"insuranceRatePct":0.56,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (VA avg 0.56%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":54.550000000000004,"egi":1036.45,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":109.10000000000001,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":54.550000000000004,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":54.550000000000004,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":389.43010000000004,"noi":647.0199,"totalExpenses":1293.731510159269,"cashFlow":-257.28151015926903,"annualCf":-3087.3781219112284,"cocReturn":-8.857522727539672,"capRate":4.455037181546936},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-339.1065101592692,"delta":-82,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-290.01151015926905,"delta":-33,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-277.6141768259357,"delta":-20,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-400.42605003196127,"delta":-143,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1987-01-01) (home values −6.2% over 3 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 1988-01-01 → 1988-04-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-308.1752981526944,"delta":-51,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-400.42605003196127,"baselineCashFlow":-257.28151015926903,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":9.895030247597724,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":100316.95487141327,"totalCashOutlay":149547.73151639279,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (VA avg 0.56%/yr)","homeValueAfter":337360.25904701196,"equityBuilt":210780.73225809293,"netCostOfBuying":-26377.000741700147,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":126693.95561311342},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":3.7601674254029214,"price":174280,"medianIncome":46349,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.619,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.62% ($885 tax ÷ $143,000 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":174280,"secondary":143000,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.22,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1091,"secondary":699,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.56,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":true}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.22,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":143000,"high":174280}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.56,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":699,"high":1091}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 9.9%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.22,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":143000,"high":174280}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.56,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":699,"high":1091}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Scott County, VA leans favorable for buying: a price-to-rent ratio of 13.3 favors owning at the median, and modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — not a claim of strong rental yield.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Scott County, VA a good rental market?","a":"For owning at the median, yes — Scott County's price-to-rent ratio of 13.3 is in the favorable range, but modeled investor cash flow is negative, so it is not a claim of strong rental yield."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Scott County?","a":"The typical home value in Scott County is about $174,280 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA metro HPI), up 3.0% year-over-year, and up 60.3% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Scott County?","a":"The typical rent in Scott County is about $1,091/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Scott County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Scott County — roughly $126,694 ahead of renting, with about $210,781 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Scott County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Scott County's median home value is 3.8x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Scott County?","a":"Scott County's effective property tax rate is about 0.62% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.62% ($885 tax ÷ $143,000 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $174,280 median home is roughly $90/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Scott County, VA was $174,280 as of April 2026, up 3.0% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Scott County, VA was $1,091/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Scott County, VA has a price-to-rent ratio of 13.3 — a reading that favors owning (owner-occupant math — not automatically strong investor cash flow). (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=scott-va","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=scott-va"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T07:23:19.219Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA metro HPI (quarterly, Kingsport-Bristol, TN-VA MSA) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Kingsport-Bristol, TN-VA MSA","acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":174280,"countyFmr":1091,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Kingsport-Bristol, TN-VA MSA"},"links":{"stateDir":"VA","stateName":"Virginia","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}