{"area":{"county":"Scott County","state":"MN","stateName":"Minnesota","slug":"scott-mn","metro":"Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI HUD Metro FMR Area"},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":387728},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":395888},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":405949},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":416347},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":424854},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":419400},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":418607},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":420878},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":431004},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":433014},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":434057},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":437154},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":440750},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":445890},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":450486},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":454908},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":456483},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":460047},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":464078},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":464697},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":467175}],"latest":467175,"yoy":2.3422559000006573,"fiveYr":20.490395328684023,"sinceStart":329.9697201181744,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1734}],"latest":1734,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":119314,"population":154557,"povertyRate":4.602589856504413,"medianHomeValue":419400,"medianGrossRent":1568,"medianPropertyTax":4230},"hud":{"county":"Scott County","year":"2027","perUnit":1734,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Minnesota","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":25291,"ratePer100k":216.88887821686487},"propertyCrime":{"total":156826,"ratePer100k":1344.8979959368176},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":22.5,"ratioVerdict":"Favors renting — price is high relative to rent","priceCagr":3.7988883800883944,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":467175,"monthlyRent":1734,"grossRent":1734,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"MN","down":93435,"loan":373740,"mortgagePI":2424.0705261140492,"monthlyTax":392.8163124999999,"taxRatePct":1.009,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 1.01% ($4,230 tax ÷ $419,400 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":210.22875000000002,"insuranceRatePct":0.54,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (MN avg 0.54%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":86.7,"egi":1647.3,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":173.4,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":86.7,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":86.7,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":949.8450625,"noi":697.4549374999999,"totalExpenses":3373.9155886140493,"cashFlow":-1726.6155886140493,"annualCf":-20719.38706336859,"cocReturn":-22.175188166499268,"capRate":1.7915040937550168},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1856.665588614049,"delta":-130,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1778.6355886140493,"delta":-52,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1779.1727761140492,"delta":-53,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-2110.3288684799263,"delta":-384,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −12.9% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2008-01-01 → 2009-01-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-1894.4147019520733,"delta":-168,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-2110.3288684799263,"baselineCashFlow":-1726.6155886140493,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"verified","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":3.7988883800883944,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":159440.51305868983,"totalCashOutlay":392043.5147738097,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (MN avg 0.54%/yr)","homeValueAfter":606496.7973820267,"equityBuilt":267187.6946300569,"netCostOfBuying":218290.8201437528,"buyingCheaper":false,"savings":58850.30708506296},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":3.9155086578272456,"price":467175,"medianIncome":119314,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":1.009,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 1.01% ($4,230 tax ÷ $419,400 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"verified","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":467175,"secondary":419400,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.11,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1734,"secondary":1568,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.11,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.11,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":419400,"high":467175}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.11,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1568,"high":1734}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 3.8%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.11,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":419400,"high":467175}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.11,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1568,"high":1734}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Scott County, MN is appreciation-driven for owning: at a 22.5x price-to-rent ratio, the math favors renting — monthly investor cash flow is typically thin or negative unless you buy below median or add units.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Scott County, MN a good rental market?","a":"Tough for cash flow. At 22.5x, Scott County is appreciation-driven — most investors here bank on equity growth, not monthly rent spread."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Scott County?","a":"The typical home value in Scott County is about $467,175 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA metro HPI), up 2.3% year-over-year, and up 20.5% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Scott County?","a":"The typical rent in Scott County is about $1,734/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Scott County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, renting is cheaper in Scott County by about $58,850 — buying only pays off if prices appreciate faster than projected."},{"q":"Is Scott County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Scott County's median home value is 3.9x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Scott County?","a":"Scott County's effective property tax rate is about 1.01% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 1.01% ($4,230 tax ÷ $419,400 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $467,175 median home is roughly $393/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Scott County, MN was $467,175 as of April 2026, up 2.3% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Scott County, MN was $1,734/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Scott County, MN has a price-to-rent ratio of 22.5 — a high reading that favors renting over buying at the median. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=scott-mn","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=scott-mn"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T08:20:54.287Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA metro HPI (quarterly, Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI HUD Metro FMR Area) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI HUD Metro FMR Area","acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":467175,"countyFmr":1734,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI HUD Metro FMR Area"},"links":{"stateDir":"MN","stateName":"Minnesota","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}